Turkey’s ruling AKP and its allies lack the 360 parliamentary votes needed to trigger a constitutional referendum, relying instead on negotiations tied to the ongoing PKK peace process and potential early elections under Article 116 to address presidential term limits. Recent legislative focus has centered on the August 2026 national solidarity law and unrelated domestic priorities such as judicial packages, while opposition parties and legal experts continue to dispute routes around the two-term cap established after the 2017 referendum. Parliament Speaker statements in mid-2026 projected possible progress by 2027, but no formal referendum announcement has materialized amid shifting alliances and competing political demands. Trader consensus therefore reflects these procedural and coalition hurdles rather than imminent resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于20% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
20% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling AKP and its allies lack the 360 parliamentary votes needed to trigger a constitutional referendum, relying instead on negotiations tied to the ongoing PKK peace process and potential early elections under Article 116 to address presidential term limits. Recent legislative focus has centered on the August 2026 national solidarity law and unrelated domestic priorities such as judicial packages, while opposition parties and legal experts continue to dispute routes around the two-term cap established after the 2017 referendum. Parliament Speaker statements in mid-2026 projected possible progress by 2027, but no formal referendum announcement has materialized amid shifting alliances and competing political demands. Trader consensus therefore reflects these procedural and coalition hurdles rather than imminent resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
交易量
$7,007结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling AKP and its allies lack the 360 parliamentary votes needed to trigger a constitutional referendum, relying instead on negotiations tied to the ongoing PKK peace process and potential early elections under Article 116 to address presidential term limits. Recent legislative focus has centered on the August 2026 national solidarity law and unrelated domestic priorities such as judicial packages, while opposition parties and legal experts continue to dispute routes around the two-term cap established after the 2017 referendum. Parliament Speaker statements in mid-2026 projected possible progress by 2027, but no formal referendum announcement has materialized amid shifting alliances and competing political demands. Trader consensus therefore reflects these procedural and coalition hurdles rather than imminent resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$7,007结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETTurkey’s ruling AKP and its allies lack the 360 parliamentary votes needed to trigger a constitutional referendum, relying instead on negotiations tied to the ongoing PKK peace process and potential early elections under Article 116 to address presidential term limits. Recent legislative focus has centered on the August 2026 national solidarity law and unrelated domestic priorities such as judicial packages, while opposition parties and legal experts continue to dispute routes around the two-term cap established after the 2017 referendum. Parliament Speaker statements in mid-2026 projected possible progress by 2027, but no formal referendum announcement has materialized amid shifting alliances and competing political demands. Trader consensus therefore reflects these procedural and coalition hurdles rather than imminent resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题