Incumbent Democrat Joaquin Castro secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with minimal opposition, reinforcing expectations for a strong hold in the solidly Democratic TX-20 district centered in San Antonio. Forecasters rate the seat as Safe or Solid Democratic based on its consistent voting history, demographic composition favoring the party, and the absence of competitive Republican challengers or notable primary activity on that side. Trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% Democratic probability aligns with these structural advantages and low early fundraising signals from potential opponents. Scenarios that could shift odds include an unusually strong Republican candidate emerging with significant outside spending, a major national political realignment before November, or unforeseen developments such as candidate withdrawal or legal issues affecting the incumbent.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$24,590 交易量
$24,590 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$24,590 交易量
$24,590 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$12,059 交易量
94%
共和党
$12,531 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Joaquin Castro secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with minimal opposition, reinforcing expectations for a strong hold in the solidly Democratic TX-20 district centered in San Antonio. Forecasters rate the seat as Safe or Solid Democratic based on its consistent voting history, demographic composition favoring the party, and the absence of competitive Republican challengers or notable primary activity on that side. Trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% Democratic probability aligns with these structural advantages and low early fundraising signals from potential opponents. Scenarios that could shift odds include an unusually strong Republican candidate emerging with significant outside spending, a major national political realignment before November, or unforeseen developments such as candidate withdrawal or legal issues affecting the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$24,590结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Joaquin Castro secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with minimal opposition, reinforcing expectations for a strong hold in the solidly Democratic TX-20 district centered in San Antonio. Forecasters rate the seat as Safe or Solid Democratic based on its consistent voting history, demographic composition favoring the party, and the absence of competitive Republican challengers or notable primary activity on that side. Trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% Democratic probability aligns with these structural advantages and low early fundraising signals from potential opponents. Scenarios that could shift odds include an unusually strong Republican candidate emerging with significant outside spending, a major national political realignment before November, or unforeseen developments such as candidate withdrawal or legal issues affecting the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$24,590结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Joaquin Castro secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with minimal opposition, reinforcing expectations for a strong hold in the solidly Democratic TX-20 district centered in San Antonio. Forecasters rate the seat as Safe or Solid Democratic based on its consistent voting history, demographic composition favoring the party, and the absence of competitive Republican challengers or notable primary activity on that side. Trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% Democratic probability aligns with these structural advantages and low early fundraising signals from potential opponents. Scenarios that could shift odds include an unusually strong Republican candidate emerging with significant outside spending, a major national political realignment before November, or unforeseen developments such as candidate withdrawal or legal issues affecting the incumbent.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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