Texas's 30th congressional district remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the state, anchored in majority-Black and Hispanic areas of southern Dallas with a Cook PVI of D+25. The open-seat contest follows redistricting and the decision by incumbent Jasmine Crockett to run for Senate, yet Democratic nominee Frederick Haynes III secured the nomination with over 72% in the March 2026 primary. Republican nominee Everett Jackson advanced through a May runoff but faces structural barriers in a district where recent statewide Democratic candidates have routinely exceeded 70% support. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent turnout patterns among core voting blocs and the absence of competitive polling or notable shifts in the past year. While a national Republican wave or unforeseen candidate-specific event could theoretically narrow margins, the district's partisan baseline makes such outcomes highly improbable by November 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$42,746 交易量
$42,746 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
96%
共和党
3%
$42,746 交易量
$42,746 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$5,578 交易量
96%
共和党
$37,169 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 30th congressional district remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the state, anchored in majority-Black and Hispanic areas of southern Dallas with a Cook PVI of D+25. The open-seat contest follows redistricting and the decision by incumbent Jasmine Crockett to run for Senate, yet Democratic nominee Frederick Haynes III secured the nomination with over 72% in the March 2026 primary. Republican nominee Everett Jackson advanced through a May runoff but faces structural barriers in a district where recent statewide Democratic candidates have routinely exceeded 70% support. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent turnout patterns among core voting blocs and the absence of competitive polling or notable shifts in the past year. While a national Republican wave or unforeseen candidate-specific event could theoretically narrow margins, the district's partisan baseline makes such outcomes highly improbable by November 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$42,746结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 30th congressional district remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the state, anchored in majority-Black and Hispanic areas of southern Dallas with a Cook PVI of D+25. The open-seat contest follows redistricting and the decision by incumbent Jasmine Crockett to run for Senate, yet Democratic nominee Frederick Haynes III secured the nomination with over 72% in the March 2026 primary. Republican nominee Everett Jackson advanced through a May runoff but faces structural barriers in a district where recent statewide Democratic candidates have routinely exceeded 70% support. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent turnout patterns among core voting blocs and the absence of competitive polling or notable shifts in the past year. While a national Republican wave or unforeseen candidate-specific event could theoretically narrow margins, the district's partisan baseline makes such outcomes highly improbable by November 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$42,746结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Texas's 30th congressional district remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the state, anchored in majority-Black and Hispanic areas of southern Dallas with a Cook PVI of D+25. The open-seat contest follows redistricting and the decision by incumbent Jasmine Crockett to run for Senate, yet Democratic nominee Frederick Haynes III secured the nomination with over 72% in the March 2026 primary. Republican nominee Everett Jackson advanced through a May runoff but faces structural barriers in a district where recent statewide Democratic candidates have routinely exceeded 70% support. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent turnout patterns among core voting blocs and the absence of competitive polling or notable shifts in the past year. While a national Republican wave or unforeseen candidate-specific event could theoretically narrow margins, the district's partisan baseline makes such outcomes highly improbable by November 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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