Albania leads Group C1 on nine points from four UEFA Nations League matches, two clear of Belarus and Finland, after securing three wins including victories over Belarus and San Marino plus a narrow home success against the latter. Their strong attack and solid defensive record position them as the clear favorite for the group title at 71.5% implied probability in trader consensus. Belarus sits second on seven points with a favorable remaining schedule, while Finland’s superior goal difference has not offset their tougher path after an earlier win over Albania. The November 12 clash between Albania and Finland in Tirana represents a pivotal six-pointer that could extend the leaders’ advantage before the final matchday. San Marino’s position at the bottom renders them irrelevant to the outcome.