Recent UK GDP data showing 0.4% QoQ growth in Q2 2026, down from 0.6% in Q1, combined with Middle East-related energy price pressures, underpin trader positioning around subdued Q3 expansion. Market-implied odds cluster tightly on outcomes between negative and 0.5% growth, reflecting uncertainty over whether services momentum and capital formation can offset higher input costs and softer consumer demand. Key swing factors include upcoming PMI readings, retail sales, and inflation prints that could clarify if the slowdown proves temporary or signals broader weakness ahead of Bank of England policy decisions. Aggregated real-money sentiment prices in these near-term data risks without assuming a decisive rebound.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0.0–0.1% 29%
0.4–0.5% 26%
负增长 25%
0.2–0.3% 21%
最新
最新
2026-11-12
负增长
25%
0.0–0.1%
29%
0.2–0.3%
27%
0.4–0.5%
26%
0.6–0.7%
19%
0.8–0.9%
4%
1.0%及以上
4%
0.0–0.1% 29%
0.4–0.5% 26%
负增长 25%
0.2–0.3% 21%
最新
最新
2026-11-12
负增长
$1,891 交易量
25%
0.0–0.1%
$198 交易量
29%
0.2–0.3%
$1,389 交易量
27%
0.4–0.5%
$606 交易量
26%
0.6–0.7%
$158 交易量
19%
0.8–0.9%
$139 交易量
4%
1.0%及以上
$139 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent UK GDP data showing 0.4% QoQ growth in Q2 2026, down from 0.6% in Q1, combined with Middle East-related energy price pressures, underpin trader positioning around subdued Q3 expansion. Market-implied odds cluster tightly on outcomes between negative and 0.5% growth, reflecting uncertainty over whether services momentum and capital formation can offset higher input costs and softer consumer demand. Key swing factors include upcoming PMI readings, retail sales, and inflation prints that could clarify if the slowdown proves temporary or signals broader weakness ahead of Bank of England policy decisions. Aggregated real-money sentiment prices in these near-term data risks without assuming a decisive rebound.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
市场开放时间： Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ET
交易量
$4,520结束日期
2026-11-12市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent UK GDP data showing 0.4% QoQ growth in Q2 2026, down from 0.6% in Q1, combined with Middle East-related energy price pressures, underpin trader positioning around subdued Q3 expansion. Market-implied odds cluster tightly on outcomes between negative and 0.5% growth, reflecting uncertainty over whether services momentum and capital formation can offset higher input costs and softer consumer demand. Key swing factors include upcoming PMI readings, retail sales, and inflation prints that could clarify if the slowdown proves temporary or signals broader weakness ahead of Bank of England policy decisions. Aggregated real-money sentiment prices in these near-term data risks without assuming a decisive rebound.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
交易量
$4,520结束日期
2026-11-12市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent UK GDP data showing 0.4% QoQ growth in Q2 2026, down from 0.6% in Q1, combined with Middle East-related energy price pressures, underpin trader positioning around subdued Q3 expansion. Market-implied odds cluster tightly on outcomes between negative and 0.5% growth, reflecting uncertainty over whether services momentum and capital formation can offset higher input costs and softer consumer demand. Key swing factors include upcoming PMI readings, retail sales, and inflation prints that could clarify if the slowdown proves temporary or signals broader weakness ahead of Bank of England policy decisions. Aggregated real-money sentiment prices in these near-term data risks without assuming a decisive rebound.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题