The 2026 French Senate election on September 27 will renew 178 seats through indirect voting by an electoral college of local officials, with the Union Centriste (UC) group currently holding 59 seats and 30 up for renewal. Trader probabilities cluster tightly around 56-61 seats because UC leaders have targeted stability following the March municipal elections, where centrist and right-leaning local majorities largely held, offsetting potential losses with targeted gains in departments featuring competitive alliances or limited left fragmentation. The group's flexible positioning between Les Républicains and smaller centrist formations allows it to absorb independents or apparentés in many contests, but outcomes hinge on final candidate lists, departmental pacts, and whether Rassemblement National advances erode centrist margins in southern or urban areas. Any late shifts in left coordination or right-wing unity could tip the balance modestly higher or lower within the narrow window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于56-58 35%
59-61 32%
62-64 17.3%
53-55 12%
最新
最新
2026-10-31
<53
3%
53-55
12%
56-58
35%
59-61
32%
62-64
17%
65-67
6%
68+
1%
56-58 35%
59-61 32%
62-64 17.3%
53-55 12%
最新
最新
2026-10-31
<53
$142 交易量
3%
53-55
$425 交易量
12%
56-58
$1,688 交易量
35%
59-61
$511 交易量
32%
62-64
$187 交易量
17%
65-67
$163 交易量
6%
68+
$120 交易量
1%
The 2026 French Senate election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, renewing série 2 — 178 of the Senate's 348 seats. The new senators are currently scheduled to take office on October 1, 2026, and the deadline for submitting new political-group membership lists and political declarations is currently set for October 5, 2026, at 4:00 PM CEST.
This market will resolve according to the number of French Senate seats held by the Groupe Union Centriste as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST.
The seat count will be the group's total membership as published by the French Senate (senat.fr), counting members (membres), related (apparentés), and affiliated (rattachés).
A group will qualify as the Groupe Union Centriste if it satisfies at least one of the following:
- Its official name includes "Union Centriste" or a clear variant thereof;
- Its political declaration published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France identifies it as a continuation of the group; or
- It is publicly recognized as the continuation of the Groupe Union Centriste, and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting.
A group that changes its name will continue to qualify if it meets at least one of the criteria above. If the group merges with one or more other groups, this market will resolve according to the total membership of the merged group, provided the merged group meets at least one of the criteria above.
If no group qualifies, or group composition is not officially published, as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The administrative meeting of senators not appearing on the list of any group (RASNAG) will not qualify as a group for the purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.The 2026 French Senate election on September 27 will renew 178 seats through indirect voting by an electoral college of local officials, with the Union Centriste (UC) group currently holding 59 seats and 30 up for renewal. Trader probabilities cluster tightly around 56-61 seats because UC leaders have targeted stability following the March municipal elections, where centrist and right-leaning local majorities largely held, offsetting potential losses with targeted gains in departments featuring competitive alliances or limited left fragmentation. The group's flexible positioning between Les Républicains and smaller centrist formations allows it to absorb independents or apparentés in many contests, but outcomes hinge on final candidate lists, departmental pacts, and whether Rassemblement National advances erode centrist margins in southern or urban areas. Any late shifts in left coordination or right-wing unity could tip the balance modestly higher or lower within the narrow window.
The 2026 French Senate election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, renewing série 2 — 178 of the Senate's 348 seats. The new senators are currently scheduled to take office on October 1, 2026, and the deadline for submitting new political-group membership lists and political declarations is currently set for October 5, 2026, at 4:00 PM CEST.
This market will resolve according to the number of French Senate seats held by the Groupe Union Centriste as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST.
The seat count will be the group's total membership as published by the French Senate (senat.fr), counting members (membres), related (apparentés), and affiliated (rattachés).
A group will qualify as the Groupe Union Centriste if it satisfies at least one of the following:
- Its official name includes "Union Centriste" or a clear variant thereof;
- Its political declaration published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France identifies it as a continuation of the group; or
- It is publicly recognized as the continuation of the Groupe Union Centriste, and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting.
A group that changes its name will continue to qualify if it meets at least one of the criteria above. If the group merges with one or more other groups, this market will resolve according to the total membership of the merged group, provided the merged group meets at least one of the criteria above.
If no group qualifies, or group composition is not officially published, as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The administrative meeting of senators not appearing on the list of any group (RASNAG) will not qualify as a group for the purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the number of French Senate seats held by the Groupe Union Centriste as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST.
The seat count will be the group's total membership as published by the French Senate (senat.fr), counting members (membres), related (apparentés), and affiliated (rattachés).
A group will qualify as the Groupe Union Centriste if it satisfies at least one of the following:
- Its official name includes "Union Centriste" or a clear variant thereof;
- Its political declaration published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France identifies it as a continuation of the group; or
- It is publicly recognized as the continuation of the Groupe Union Centriste, and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting.
A group that changes its name will continue to qualify if it meets at least one of the criteria above. If the group merges with one or more other groups, this market will resolve according to the total membership of the merged group, provided the merged group meets at least one of the criteria above.
If no group qualifies, or group composition is not officially published, as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The administrative meeting of senators not appearing on the list of any group (RASNAG) will not qualify as a group for the purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Aug 19, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
交易量
$3,236结束日期
2026-10-12市场开放时间
Aug 19, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 French Senate election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, renewing série 2 — 178 of the Senate's 348 seats. The new senators are currently scheduled to take office on October 1, 2026, and the deadline for submitting new political-group membership lists and political declarations is currently set for October 5, 2026, at 4:00 PM CEST.
This market will resolve according to the number of French Senate seats held by the Groupe Union Centriste as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST.
The seat count will be the group's total membership as published by the French Senate (senat.fr), counting members (membres), related (apparentés), and affiliated (rattachés).
A group will qualify as the Groupe Union Centriste if it satisfies at least one of the following:
- Its official name includes "Union Centriste" or a clear variant thereof;
- Its political declaration published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France identifies it as a continuation of the group; or
- It is publicly recognized as the continuation of the Groupe Union Centriste, and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting.
A group that changes its name will continue to qualify if it meets at least one of the criteria above. If the group merges with one or more other groups, this market will resolve according to the total membership of the merged group, provided the merged group meets at least one of the criteria above.
If no group qualifies, or group composition is not officially published, as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The administrative meeting of senators not appearing on the list of any group (RASNAG) will not qualify as a group for the purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.The 2026 French Senate election on September 27 will renew 178 seats through indirect voting by an electoral college of local officials, with the Union Centriste (UC) group currently holding 59 seats and 30 up for renewal. Trader probabilities cluster tightly around 56-61 seats because UC leaders have targeted stability following the March municipal elections, where centrist and right-leaning local majorities largely held, offsetting potential losses with targeted gains in departments featuring competitive alliances or limited left fragmentation. The group's flexible positioning between Les Républicains and smaller centrist formations allows it to absorb independents or apparentés in many contests, but outcomes hinge on final candidate lists, departmental pacts, and whether Rassemblement National advances erode centrist margins in southern or urban areas. Any late shifts in left coordination or right-wing unity could tip the balance modestly higher or lower within the narrow window.
The 2026 French Senate election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, renewing série 2 — 178 of the Senate's 348 seats. The new senators are currently scheduled to take office on October 1, 2026, and the deadline for submitting new political-group membership lists and political declarations is currently set for October 5, 2026, at 4:00 PM CEST.
This market will resolve according to the number of French Senate seats held by the Groupe Union Centriste as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST.
The seat count will be the group's total membership as published by the French Senate (senat.fr), counting members (membres), related (apparentés), and affiliated (rattachés).
A group will qualify as the Groupe Union Centriste if it satisfies at least one of the following:
- Its official name includes "Union Centriste" or a clear variant thereof;
- Its political declaration published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France identifies it as a continuation of the group; or
- It is publicly recognized as the continuation of the Groupe Union Centriste, and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting.
A group that changes its name will continue to qualify if it meets at least one of the criteria above. If the group merges with one or more other groups, this market will resolve according to the total membership of the merged group, provided the merged group meets at least one of the criteria above.
If no group qualifies, or group composition is not officially published, as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The administrative meeting of senators not appearing on the list of any group (RASNAG) will not qualify as a group for the purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the number of French Senate seats held by the Groupe Union Centriste as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST.
The seat count will be the group's total membership as published by the French Senate (senat.fr), counting members (membres), related (apparentés), and affiliated (rattachés).
A group will qualify as the Groupe Union Centriste if it satisfies at least one of the following:
- Its official name includes "Union Centriste" or a clear variant thereof;
- Its political declaration published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France identifies it as a continuation of the group; or
- It is publicly recognized as the continuation of the Groupe Union Centriste, and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting.
A group that changes its name will continue to qualify if it meets at least one of the criteria above. If the group merges with one or more other groups, this market will resolve according to the total membership of the merged group, provided the merged group meets at least one of the criteria above.
If no group qualifies, or group composition is not officially published, as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The administrative meeting of senators not appearing on the list of any group (RASNAG) will not qualify as a group for the purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$3,236结束日期
2026-10-12市场开放时间
Aug 19, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 French Senate election on September 27 will renew 178 seats through indirect voting by an electoral college of local officials, with the Union Centriste (UC) group currently holding 59 seats and 30 up for renewal. Trader probabilities cluster tightly around 56-61 seats because UC leaders have targeted stability following the March municipal elections, where centrist and right-leaning local majorities largely held, offsetting potential losses with targeted gains in departments featuring competitive alliances or limited left fragmentation. The group's flexible positioning between Les Républicains and smaller centrist formations allows it to absorb independents or apparentés in many contests, but outcomes hinge on final candidate lists, departmental pacts, and whether Rassemblement National advances erode centrist margins in southern or urban areas. Any late shifts in left coordination or right-wing unity could tip the balance modestly higher or lower within the narrow window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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