Recent U.S. actions have centered on sanctions targeting Cuba’s military-linked GAESA conglomerate and officials in energy, defense, and security sectors, alongside preparations to seek an indictment against former leader Raúl Castro over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue incident. These steps reflect escalation through executive orders and Justice Department focus on historical cases or economic pressure without extending to formal federal charges against sitting President Miguel Díaz-Canel. Diplomatic and jurisdictional barriers for indicting a current head of state, combined with the absence of any Department of Justice announcements or signals directed at Díaz-Canel through mid-May 2026, underpin the trader consensus favoring no charges by the June 30 resolution date. Díaz-Canel’s public rejection of U.S. measures has not altered this positioning.