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地缘政治·特朗普

美国联邦政府指控前古巴领导人劳尔·卡斯特罗？

icon for 美国联邦政府指控前古巴领导人劳尔·卡斯特罗？
地缘政治·特朗普

美国联邦政府指控前古巴领导人劳尔·卡斯特罗？

是

61% 概率
Polymarket

$108,129 交易量

是

61% 概率
Polymarket

$108,129 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of former First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Raul Castro between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Department of Justice is advancing plans to indict former Cuban President Raúl Castro over his alleged role as defense minister in the 1996 shootdown of two civilian planes operated by the Brothers to the Rescue exile group, which killed four people including three U.S. citizens. Recent reporting from multiple outlets confirms federal prosecutors in Miami are preparing to unseal charges as early as May 20, aligning with renewed Trump administration pressure on Havana and bipartisan congressional calls marking the incident’s 30th anniversary. This development underpins the 60.5% implied probability for a federal charge by June 30, reflecting trader assessment of an active DOJ effort that has reached the indictment drafting stage but awaits formal unsealing and grand jury action. Castro, now 94, faces no confirmed filing yet, leaving room for procedural delays or policy shifts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of former First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Raul Castro between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$108,129
结束日期
2026-06-30
市场开放时间
Mar 9, 2026, 5:03 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of former First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Raul Castro between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of former First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Raul Castro between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Department of Justice is advancing plans to indict former Cuban President Raúl Castro over his alleged role as defense minister in the 1996 shootdown of two civilian planes operated by the Brothers to the Rescue exile group, which killed four people including three U.S. citizens. Recent reporting from multiple outlets confirms federal prosecutors in Miami are preparing to unseal charges as early as May 20, aligning with renewed Trump administration pressure on Havana and bipartisan congressional calls marking the incident’s 30th anniversary. This development underpins the 60.5% implied probability for a federal charge by June 30, reflecting trader assessment of an active DOJ effort that has reached the indictment drafting stage but awaits formal unsealing and grand jury action. Castro, now 94, faces no confirmed filing yet, leaving room for procedural delays or policy shifts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of former First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Raul Castro between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$108,129
结束日期
2026-06-30
市场开放时间
Mar 9, 2026, 5:03 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of former First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Raul Castro between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"美国联邦政府指控前古巴领导人劳尔·卡斯特罗？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"美国联邦指控前古巴领导人劳尔·卡斯特罗？"，概率为 61%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 61¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 61%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"美国联邦政府指控前古巴领导人劳尔·卡斯特罗？"已产生 $108.1K 的总交易量（自Mar 9, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"美国联邦政府指控前古巴领导人劳尔·卡斯特罗？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"美国联邦政府指控前古巴领导人劳尔·卡斯特罗？"的当前领先者是"美国联邦指控前古巴领导人劳尔·卡斯特罗？"，概率为 61%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 61%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"美国联邦政府指控前古巴领导人劳尔·卡斯特罗？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。