Recent Justice Department efforts to secure an indictment against former Cuban president Raúl Castro have driven the elevated trader consensus around federal charges. Multiple U.S. officials confirmed that prosecutors are preparing to unseal charges in Miami as early as May 20, tied to the 1996 downing of two Brothers to the Rescue planes by Cuban military jets. This step aligns with the current administration’s renewed pressure on Havana and follows long-standing calls from Cuban-American lawmakers and victims’ families for accountability over the incident that killed four exiles. The timing of the planned announcement, combined with ongoing grand jury review, has shifted market pricing toward a higher likelihood of formal charges, though final approval and public unveiling remain subject to procedural steps.