Trader consensus reflects the high bar for authorizing a US military draft, last used during the Vietnam War and requiring Congressional action amid a declared national emergency, with no such moves in 2026 despite geopolitical tensions from the US-Israel war against Iran earlier this year. Recent developments center on the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed by President Trump in December 2025, which mandates automatic Selective Service registration for eligible men starting December 2026 to streamline the inactive draft pool—but explicitly does not activate conscription. Bipartisan legislation reintroduced last week by Senators Wyden, Paul, and Lummis seeks to abolish Selective Service altogether, underscoring minimal momentum for reinstatement amid a robust all-volunteer force. Absent major escalation or legislative push, traders price low risk through year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$251,086 交易量
$251,086 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$251,086 交易量
$251,086 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects the high bar for authorizing a US military draft, last used during the Vietnam War and requiring Congressional action amid a declared national emergency, with no such moves in 2026 despite geopolitical tensions from the US-Israel war against Iran earlier this year. Recent developments center on the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed by President Trump in December 2025, which mandates automatic Selective Service registration for eligible men starting December 2026 to streamline the inactive draft pool—but explicitly does not activate conscription. Bipartisan legislation reintroduced last week by Senators Wyden, Paul, and Lummis seeks to abolish Selective Service altogether, underscoring minimal momentum for reinstatement amid a robust all-volunteer force. Absent major escalation or legislative push, traders price low risk through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
交易量
$251,086结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects the high bar for authorizing a US military draft, last used during the Vietnam War and requiring Congressional action amid a declared national emergency, with no such moves in 2026 despite geopolitical tensions from the US-Israel war against Iran earlier this year. Recent developments center on the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed by President Trump in December 2025, which mandates automatic Selective Service registration for eligible men starting December 2026 to streamline the inactive draft pool—but explicitly does not activate conscription. Bipartisan legislation reintroduced last week by Senators Wyden, Paul, and Lummis seeks to abolish Selective Service altogether, underscoring minimal momentum for reinstatement amid a robust all-volunteer force. Absent major escalation or legislative push, traders price low risk through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$251,086结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects the high bar for authorizing a US military draft, last used during the Vietnam War and requiring Congressional action amid a declared national emergency, with no such moves in 2026 despite geopolitical tensions from the US-Israel war against Iran earlier this year. Recent developments center on the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed by President Trump in December 2025, which mandates automatic Selective Service registration for eligible men starting December 2026 to streamline the inactive draft pool—but explicitly does not activate conscription. Bipartisan legislation reintroduced last week by Senators Wyden, Paul, and Lummis seeks to abolish Selective Service altogether, underscoring minimal momentum for reinstatement amid a robust all-volunteer force. Absent major escalation or legislative push, traders price low risk through year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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