The 98% trader consensus that no US military draft will be authorized in 2026 stems from the absence of any congressional legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to permit inductions, a step required beyond the existing Selective Service System. The FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed in December 2025, advanced only automatic registration for men ages 18-25 using federal databases effective December 18, 2026—an administrative update that does not enable conscription. The all-volunteer force has met personnel needs without reactivation since 1973, and no national emergency or troop shortfall has prompted new authority amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Bipartisan proposals to repeal Selective Service registration have also stalled. A draft could still emerge if Congress passes and the president signs explicit induction legislation during a major escalation requiring forces beyond volunteer levels, though such action remains structurally and politically distant within the remaining weeks of 2026.