The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, with the Nevada National Security Site retaining technical readiness that would require an estimated 24-36 months to prepare for an underground test. President Trump's October 2025 directive to begin testing "on an equal basis" with other nations, citing Russian and Chinese activities, briefly elevated discussion of resumption, yet subsequent analyses from the NNSA, Congress, and arms control experts have emphasized significant logistical, budgetary, and diplomatic barriers. Routine unarmed Minuteman III launches and stockpile stewardship programs continue without explosive yields, while New START's February 2026 expiration and ongoing modernization debates add context without altering the low implied probabilities for a test by late 2026. Trader consensus reflects these structural constraints over short-term political signals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$770,068 交易量
2026-12-31
2026年9月30日
1%
2026年12月31日
4%
$770,068 交易量
2026年9月30日
$57,189 交易量
1%
2026年12月31日
$52,068 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, with the Nevada National Security Site retaining technical readiness that would require an estimated 24-36 months to prepare for an underground test. President Trump's October 2025 directive to begin testing "on an equal basis" with other nations, citing Russian and Chinese activities, briefly elevated discussion of resumption, yet subsequent analyses from the NNSA, Congress, and arms control experts have emphasized significant logistical, budgetary, and diplomatic barriers. Routine unarmed Minuteman III launches and stockpile stewardship programs continue without explosive yields, while New START's February 2026 expiration and ongoing modernization debates add context without altering the low implied probabilities for a test by late 2026. Trader consensus reflects these structural constraints over short-term political signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$770,068结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, with the Nevada National Security Site retaining technical readiness that would require an estimated 24-36 months to prepare for an underground test. President Trump's October 2025 directive to begin testing "on an equal basis" with other nations, citing Russian and Chinese activities, briefly elevated discussion of resumption, yet subsequent analyses from the NNSA, Congress, and arms control experts have emphasized significant logistical, budgetary, and diplomatic barriers. Routine unarmed Minuteman III launches and stockpile stewardship programs continue without explosive yields, while New START's February 2026 expiration and ongoing modernization debates add context without altering the low implied probabilities for a test by late 2026. Trader consensus reflects these structural constraints over short-term political signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$770,068结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, with the Nevada National Security Site retaining technical readiness that would require an estimated 24-36 months to prepare for an underground test. President Trump's October 2025 directive to begin testing "on an equal basis" with other nations, citing Russian and Chinese activities, briefly elevated discussion of resumption, yet subsequent analyses from the NNSA, Congress, and arms control experts have emphasized significant logistical, budgetary, and diplomatic barriers. Routine unarmed Minuteman III launches and stockpile stewardship programs continue without explosive yields, while New START's February 2026 expiration and ongoing modernization debates add context without altering the low implied probabilities for a test by late 2026. Trader consensus reflects these structural constraints over short-term political signals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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