Recent U.S. tariff measures implemented since early 2025, including broad reciprocal trade agreements and higher duties on imports from major partners, have narrowed the goods and services deficit by curbing import growth while supporting modest export gains in energy and agriculture. In 2026, monthly shortfalls have stabilized near $60 billion amid recovering import volumes for autos, capital goods, and consumer products, offset by stronger services exports and gradual dollar depreciation. The Congressional Budget Office projects continued moderation through year-end as supply-chain adjustments slow and domestic demand strengthens under prior fiscal measures, yet uncertainty over additional bilateral deals and global growth keeps the annual outcome closely contested between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion brackets. Traders weigh these policy effects against potential late-year shifts from new trade negotiations or economic rebound.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$20,985 交易量
$20,985 交易量
2027-02-28
少于5000亿
7%
5000亿–6000亿
6%
6000亿–7000亿美元
5%
7000亿–8000亿
8%
8,000亿–9,000亿
39%
9000亿–1万亿
36%
1万亿–1.1万亿
9%
1.1万亿美元以上
5%
$20,985 交易量
$20,985 交易量
2027-02-28
少于5000亿
$16,637 交易量
7%
5000亿–6000亿
$413 交易量
6%
6000亿–7000亿美元
$435 交易量
5%
7000亿–8000亿
$456 交易量
8%
8,000亿–9,000亿
$1,008 交易量
39%
9000亿–1万亿
$971 交易量
36%
1万亿–1.1万亿
$441 交易量
9%
1.1万亿美元以上
$624 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. tariff measures implemented since early 2025, including broad reciprocal trade agreements and higher duties on imports from major partners, have narrowed the goods and services deficit by curbing import growth while supporting modest export gains in energy and agriculture. In 2026, monthly shortfalls have stabilized near $60 billion amid recovering import volumes for autos, capital goods, and consumer products, offset by stronger services exports and gradual dollar depreciation. The Congressional Budget Office projects continued moderation through year-end as supply-chain adjustments slow and domestic demand strengthens under prior fiscal measures, yet uncertainty over additional bilateral deals and global growth keeps the annual outcome closely contested between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion brackets. Traders weigh these policy effects against potential late-year shifts from new trade negotiations or economic rebound.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
交易量
$20,985结束日期
2027-02-28市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. tariff measures implemented since early 2025, including broad reciprocal trade agreements and higher duties on imports from major partners, have narrowed the goods and services deficit by curbing import growth while supporting modest export gains in energy and agriculture. In 2026, monthly shortfalls have stabilized near $60 billion amid recovering import volumes for autos, capital goods, and consumer products, offset by stronger services exports and gradual dollar depreciation. The Congressional Budget Office projects continued moderation through year-end as supply-chain adjustments slow and domestic demand strengthens under prior fiscal measures, yet uncertainty over additional bilateral deals and global growth keeps the annual outcome closely contested between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion brackets. Traders weigh these policy effects against potential late-year shifts from new trade negotiations or economic rebound.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
交易量
$20,985结束日期
2027-02-28市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. tariff measures implemented since early 2025, including broad reciprocal trade agreements and higher duties on imports from major partners, have narrowed the goods and services deficit by curbing import growth while supporting modest export gains in energy and agriculture. In 2026, monthly shortfalls have stabilized near $60 billion amid recovering import volumes for autos, capital goods, and consumer products, offset by stronger services exports and gradual dollar depreciation. The Congressional Budget Office projects continued moderation through year-end as supply-chain adjustments slow and domestic demand strengthens under prior fiscal measures, yet uncertainty over additional bilateral deals and global growth keeps the annual outcome closely contested between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion brackets. Traders weigh these policy effects against potential late-year shifts from new trade negotiations or economic rebound.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题