Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability for Virginia's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by longtime incumbent Rep. Bobby Scott's reelection bid in a D+18 Cook Partisan Voter Index district where he won 70% in 2024. The absence of any Republican primary candidates ahead of the May 26 filing deadline and August 4 primaries underscores structural barriers, with independents showing negligible fundraising. April's voter-approved mid-decade redistricting, though facing court challenges, preserved VA-03's safe Democratic status per Cook Political Report's Solid D rating. Upsets could arise from a late, well-funded GOP entrant, a Scott scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave, though none appear imminent before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$35,417 交易量
$35,417 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
7%
$35,417 交易量
$35,417 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$20,073 交易量
94%
共和党
$15,345 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability for Virginia's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by longtime incumbent Rep. Bobby Scott's reelection bid in a D+18 Cook Partisan Voter Index district where he won 70% in 2024. The absence of any Republican primary candidates ahead of the May 26 filing deadline and August 4 primaries underscores structural barriers, with independents showing negligible fundraising. April's voter-approved mid-decade redistricting, though facing court challenges, preserved VA-03's safe Democratic status per Cook Political Report's Solid D rating. Upsets could arise from a late, well-funded GOP entrant, a Scott scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave, though none appear imminent before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$35,417结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability for Virginia's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by longtime incumbent Rep. Bobby Scott's reelection bid in a D+18 Cook Partisan Voter Index district where he won 70% in 2024. The absence of any Republican primary candidates ahead of the May 26 filing deadline and August 4 primaries underscores structural barriers, with independents showing negligible fundraising. April's voter-approved mid-decade redistricting, though facing court challenges, preserved VA-03's safe Democratic status per Cook Political Report's Solid D rating. Upsets could arise from a late, well-funded GOP entrant, a Scott scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave, though none appear imminent before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$35,417结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability for Virginia's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by longtime incumbent Rep. Bobby Scott's reelection bid in a D+18 Cook Partisan Voter Index district where he won 70% in 2024. The absence of any Republican primary candidates ahead of the May 26 filing deadline and August 4 primaries underscores structural barriers, with independents showing negligible fundraising. April's voter-approved mid-decade redistricting, though facing court challenges, preserved VA-03's safe Democratic status per Cook Political Report's Solid D rating. Upsets could arise from a late, well-funded GOP entrant, a Scott scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave, though none appear imminent before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题