Skip to main content
icon for 2026年底委内瑞拉领导人？
政治·Trump-Machado

2026年底委内瑞拉领导人？

icon for 2026年底委内瑞拉领导人？
政治·Trump-Machado

2026年底委内瑞拉领导人？

尼古拉斯·马杜罗 64.0%

德尔西·罗德里格斯 21%

玛丽亚·科琳娜·马查多 8%

豪尔赫·罗德里格斯 <1%

Polymarket

$88,134,799 交易量

尼古拉斯·马杜罗 64.0%

德尔西·罗德里格斯 21%

玛丽亚·科琳娜·马查多 8%

豪尔赫·罗德里格斯 <1%

Polymarket

$88,134,799 交易量

尼古拉斯·马杜罗

$1,705,753 交易量

64%

德尔西·罗德里格斯

$1,597,331 交易量

21%

玛丽亚·科琳娜·马查多

$1,055,770 交易量

8%

豪尔赫·罗德里格斯

$1,002,523 交易量

1%

迪奥斯达多·卡贝略·隆东

$1,681,567 交易量

1%

埃德蒙多·冈萨雷斯

$822,508 交易量

1%

唐纳德·特朗普

$913,145 交易量

1%

没有国家元首

$1,074,259 交易量

1%

埃文·佩图斯

$5,071,774 交易量

<1%

迪诺拉·菲格拉

$2,339,239 交易量

<1%

弗拉迪米尔·帕德里诺·洛佩斯

$666,331 交易量

<1%

丹·凯恩

$3,564,064 交易量

<1%

马尔科·鲁比奥

$979,693 交易量

<1%

皮特·赫格塞斯

$8,600,697 交易量

<1%

弗兰克·多诺万

$25,048,470 交易量

<1%

理查德·格雷内尔

$32,011,895 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive. US forces captured Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, installing his former vice president Delcy Rodríguez as acting head of state under constitutional succession rules and prompting renewed diplomatic ties with Washington. Trader consensus favors Maduro at end-2026 because Venezuelan institutions continue to reference his presidency, the regime’s military and party structures show continuity despite his removal, and no elections have been scheduled to alter the power balance. Rodríguez’s 20 percent share reflects her interim role and cooperation on oil-sector deals, yet her position remains provisional pending broader reforms. Opposition leader María Corina Machado holds limited odds amid exile and sidelining by both the interim authorities and US priorities centered on stability over rapid democratization. Upcoming factors that could shift probabilities include any formal election timeline or further institutional changes within the resolution window through December 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.

If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).

In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.

If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
交易量
$88,134,799
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive. US forces captured Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, installing his former vice president Delcy Rodríguez as acting head of state under constitutional succession rules and prompting renewed diplomatic ties with Washington. Trader consensus favors Maduro at end-2026 because Venezuelan institutions continue to reference his presidency, the regime’s military and party structures show continuity despite his removal, and no elections have been scheduled to alter the power balance. Rodríguez’s 20 percent share reflects her interim role and cooperation on oil-sector deals, yet her position remains provisional pending broader reforms. Opposition leader María Corina Machado holds limited odds amid exile and sidelining by both the interim authorities and US priorities centered on stability over rapid democratization. Upcoming factors that could shift probabilities include any formal election timeline or further institutional changes within the resolution window through December 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.

If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).

In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.

If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
交易量
$88,134,799
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"2026年底委内瑞拉领导人？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 16 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"尼古拉斯·马杜罗"，概率为 64%，其次是"德尔西·罗德里格斯"，概率为 21%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 64¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 64%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"2026年底委内瑞拉领导人？"已产生 $88.1 million 的总交易量（自Jan 4, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"2026年底委内瑞拉领导人？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 16 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"2026年底委内瑞拉领导人？"的当前领先者是"尼古拉斯·马杜罗"，概率为 64%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 64%。紧随其后的结果是"德尔西·罗德里格斯"，概率为 21%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"2026年底委内瑞拉领导人？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。