Mount Vesuvius maintains green alert status under Italy’s INGV and Protezione Civile monitoring, reflecting persistently low seismic energy, roughly 1,000 events per year mostly below magnitude 2.5, and an absence of measurable ground deformation or gravity changes through mid-2026. This quiescence follows the 1944 eruption and aligns with a 50-year seismicity analysis showing a stable, low-energy regime without precursors for renewed activity. Traders assign 95.3% probability to “No” because historical repose intervals and current observables make a VEI 1+ event before year-end statistically remote. An abrupt swarm of long-period events or rapid inflation could still raise odds, but no such signals have appeared in official data.