Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner holds a commanding position in the 2026 Virginia Senate race, with traders assigning his party a 93.5% implied probability of victory. Virginia's recent electoral trends, Warner's multiple statewide wins by double-digit margins, and his substantial fundraising edge have shaped this consensus. The Republican primary concluded on August 4 with retired Maj. Gen. Bert Mizusawa securing the nomination, yet the general election field remains limited to Warner, Mizusawa, and an independent candidate. Factors that could narrow the gap include unexpected national shifts, late-breaking controversies, or unusually high turnout favoring the challenger in suburban areas. The November 3 contest will test whether these structural advantages hold through the final stretch.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$13,802 交易量
$13,802 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$13,802 交易量
$13,802 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$8,722 交易量
94%
共和党
$5,081 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner holds a commanding position in the 2026 Virginia Senate race, with traders assigning his party a 93.5% implied probability of victory. Virginia's recent electoral trends, Warner's multiple statewide wins by double-digit margins, and his substantial fundraising edge have shaped this consensus. The Republican primary concluded on August 4 with retired Maj. Gen. Bert Mizusawa securing the nomination, yet the general election field remains limited to Warner, Mizusawa, and an independent candidate. Factors that could narrow the gap include unexpected national shifts, late-breaking controversies, or unusually high turnout favoring the challenger in suburban areas. The November 3 contest will test whether these structural advantages hold through the final stretch.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
交易量
$13,802结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner holds a commanding position in the 2026 Virginia Senate race, with traders assigning his party a 93.5% implied probability of victory. Virginia's recent electoral trends, Warner's multiple statewide wins by double-digit margins, and his substantial fundraising edge have shaped this consensus. The Republican primary concluded on August 4 with retired Maj. Gen. Bert Mizusawa securing the nomination, yet the general election field remains limited to Warner, Mizusawa, and an independent candidate. Factors that could narrow the gap include unexpected national shifts, late-breaking controversies, or unusually high turnout favoring the challenger in suburban areas. The November 3 contest will test whether these structural advantages hold through the final stretch.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$13,802结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner holds a commanding position in the 2026 Virginia Senate race, with traders assigning his party a 93.5% implied probability of victory. Virginia's recent electoral trends, Warner's multiple statewide wins by double-digit margins, and his substantial fundraising edge have shaped this consensus. The Republican primary concluded on August 4 with retired Maj. Gen. Bert Mizusawa securing the nomination, yet the general election field remains limited to Warner, Mizusawa, and an independent candidate. Factors that could narrow the gap include unexpected national shifts, late-breaking controversies, or unusually high turnout favoring the challenger in suburban areas. The November 3 contest will test whether these structural advantages hold through the final stretch.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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