Ongoing severe drought and record-low water levels across the Danube basin, driven by prolonged heatwaves in Central and Eastern Europe, have pushed gauges in Hungary and Romania to historic lows not seen since 2018 or earlier. Shipping, hydropower generation, and river cruises face major disruptions as levels remain below critical navigation thresholds. With no substantial rainfall forecast in the near term, recovery hinges on seasonal precipitation patterns expected in the coming weeks. The narrow spread between September 15–30 and October outcomes reflects trader uncertainty over the timing and volume of autumn rains needed to restore normal flows, while the low probability assigned to earlier or much later resolutions underscores the dominance of current meteorological conditions and historical base rates for drought relief in the region.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年10月1日 - 31日 30%
2026年9月15日 - 30日 30%
2026年9月1日 - 14日 19%
在2026年9月1日之前 8%
最新
最新
2026-09-01
在2026年9月1日之前
8%
2026年9月1日 - 14日
19%
2026年9月15日 - 30日
30%
2026年10月1日 - 31日
30%
到2026年11月1日仍未恢复
7%
2026年10月1日 - 31日 30%
2026年9月15日 - 30日 30%
2026年9月1日 - 14日 19%
在2026年9月1日之前 8%
最新
最新
2026-09-01
在2026年9月1日之前
$286 交易量
8%
2026年9月1日 - 14日
$768 交易量
19%
2026年9月15日 - 30日
$538 交易量
30%
2026年10月1日 - 31日
$381 交易量
30%
到2026年11月1日仍未恢复
$182 交易量
7%
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing severe drought and record-low water levels across the Danube basin, driven by prolonged heatwaves in Central and Eastern Europe, have pushed gauges in Hungary and Romania to historic lows not seen since 2018 or earlier. Shipping, hydropower generation, and river cruises face major disruptions as levels remain below critical navigation thresholds. With no substantial rainfall forecast in the near term, recovery hinges on seasonal precipitation patterns expected in the coming weeks. The narrow spread between September 15–30 and October outcomes reflects trader uncertainty over the timing and volume of autumn rains needed to restore normal flows, while the low probability assigned to earlier or much later resolutions underscores the dominance of current meteorological conditions and historical base rates for drought relief in the region.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ET
交易量
$2,154结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ETThis market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing severe drought and record-low water levels across the Danube basin, driven by prolonged heatwaves in Central and Eastern Europe, have pushed gauges in Hungary and Romania to historic lows not seen since 2018 or earlier. Shipping, hydropower generation, and river cruises face major disruptions as levels remain below critical navigation thresholds. With no substantial rainfall forecast in the near term, recovery hinges on seasonal precipitation patterns expected in the coming weeks. The narrow spread between September 15–30 and October outcomes reflects trader uncertainty over the timing and volume of autumn rains needed to restore normal flows, while the low probability assigned to earlier or much later resolutions underscores the dominance of current meteorological conditions and historical base rates for drought relief in the region.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,154结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ETOngoing severe drought and record-low water levels across the Danube basin, driven by prolonged heatwaves in Central and Eastern Europe, have pushed gauges in Hungary and Romania to historic lows not seen since 2018 or earlier. Shipping, hydropower generation, and river cruises face major disruptions as levels remain below critical navigation thresholds. With no substantial rainfall forecast in the near term, recovery hinges on seasonal precipitation patterns expected in the coming weeks. The narrow spread between September 15–30 and October outcomes reflects trader uncertainty over the timing and volume of autumn rains needed to restore normal flows, while the low probability assigned to earlier or much later resolutions underscores the dominance of current meteorological conditions and historical base rates for drought relief in the region.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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