Recent polling aggregates show a Democratic-leaning national environment with a generic ballot lead near D+7, keeping multiple 2026 Senate contests tight and likely to finish within 5 points. Key battlegrounds include Texas, Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, Maine, Iowa, and New Hampshire, where open seats from retirements, candidate matchups such as Collins versus Jackson or Peltola versus Sullivan, and state-level dynamics have produced margins under 3 points in recent surveys. Republicans defend more seats overall but benefit from the vice presidential tiebreaker, while Democrats target flips in states like Maine and North Carolina alongside holds in Michigan. With Election Day on November 3, late shifts in turnout or economic sentiment could narrow or widen several of these races.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$62,628 交易量
2026-11-03
德克萨斯州
84%
Kansas
73%
阿拉斯加
69%
密歇根州
62%
爱荷华州
62%
俄亥俄州（特别）
57%
缅因州
56%
新罕布什尔州
67%
内布拉斯加州
50%
佐治亚州
27%
佛罗里达（特别）
25%
明尼苏达州
21%
北卡罗来纳州
13%
新墨西哥州
12%
蒙大拿州
8%
弗吉尼亚州
4%
科罗拉多州
4%
South Carolina
54%
$62,628 交易量
德克萨斯州
$7,129 交易量
84%
Kansas
$556 交易量
73%
阿拉斯加
$2,789 交易量
69%
密歇根州
$2,735 交易量
62%
爱荷华州
$5,645 交易量
62%
俄亥俄州（特别）
$3,936 交易量
57%
缅因州
$1,020 交易量
56%
新罕布什尔州
$2,352 交易量
67%
内布拉斯加州
$3,687 交易量
50%
佐治亚州
$1,394 交易量
27%
佛罗里达（特别）
$2,450 交易量
25%
明尼苏达州
$9,715 交易量
21%
北卡罗来纳州
$5,584 交易量
13%
新墨西哥州
$6,665 交易量
12%
蒙大拿州
$2,919 交易量
8%
弗吉尼亚州
$1,344 交易量
4%
科罗拉多州
$2,599 交易量
4%
South Carolina
$109 交易量
54%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling aggregates show a Democratic-leaning national environment with a generic ballot lead near D+7, keeping multiple 2026 Senate contests tight and likely to finish within 5 points. Key battlegrounds include Texas, Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, Maine, Iowa, and New Hampshire, where open seats from retirements, candidate matchups such as Collins versus Jackson or Peltola versus Sullivan, and state-level dynamics have produced margins under 3 points in recent surveys. Republicans defend more seats overall but benefit from the vice presidential tiebreaker, while Democrats target flips in states like Maine and North Carolina alongside holds in Michigan. With Election Day on November 3, late shifts in turnout or economic sentiment could narrow or widen several of these races.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
交易量
$62,628结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETThe 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling aggregates show a Democratic-leaning national environment with a generic ballot lead near D+7, keeping multiple 2026 Senate contests tight and likely to finish within 5 points. Key battlegrounds include Texas, Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, Maine, Iowa, and New Hampshire, where open seats from retirements, candidate matchups such as Collins versus Jackson or Peltola versus Sullivan, and state-level dynamics have produced margins under 3 points in recent surveys. Republicans defend more seats overall but benefit from the vice presidential tiebreaker, while Democrats target flips in states like Maine and North Carolina alongside holds in Michigan. With Election Day on November 3, late shifts in turnout or economic sentiment could narrow or widen several of these races.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$62,628结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETRecent polling aggregates show a Democratic-leaning national environment with a generic ballot lead near D+7, keeping multiple 2026 Senate contests tight and likely to finish within 5 points. Key battlegrounds include Texas, Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, Maine, Iowa, and New Hampshire, where open seats from retirements, candidate matchups such as Collins versus Jackson or Peltola versus Sullivan, and state-level dynamics have produced margins under 3 points in recent surveys. Republicans defend more seats overall but benefit from the vice presidential tiebreaker, while Democrats target flips in states like Maine and North Carolina alongside holds in Michigan. With Election Day on November 3, late shifts in turnout or economic sentiment could narrow or widen several of these races.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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