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icon for 哪些参议院竞选将在5%以内?

哪些参议院竞选将在5%以内?

icon for 哪些参议院竞选将在5%以内?

哪些参议院竞选将在5%以内?

$62,628 交易量

2026-11-03
Polymarket

$62,628 交易量

Polymarket

德克萨斯州

$7,129 交易量

84%

Kansas

$556 交易量

70%

阿拉斯加

$2,789 交易量

68%

密歇根州

$2,735 交易量

62%

爱荷华州

$5,645 交易量

62%

俄亥俄州(特别)

$3,936 交易量

57%

缅因州

$1,020 交易量

54%

新罕布什尔州

$2,352 交易量

59%

内布拉斯加州

$3,687 交易量

48%

佐治亚州

$1,394 交易量

27%

佛罗里达(特别)

$2,450 交易量

25%

明尼苏达州

$9,715 交易量

21%

北卡罗来纳州

$5,584 交易量

13%

新墨西哥州

$6,665 交易量

12%

蒙大拿州

$2,919 交易量

8%

弗吉尼亚州

$1,344 交易量

4%

科罗拉多州

$2,599 交易量

4%

South Carolina

$109 交易量

53%

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests appear positioned for narrow margins due to open seats from retirements including Thom Tillis in North Carolina, Gary Peters in Michigan, and Joni Ernst in Iowa, combined with strong challengers such as former Governor Roy Cooper. Recent polling aggregates show races in Maine, Michigan, Georgia, Ohio, Texas, Alaska, and Iowa within or near single digits, reflecting a national environment where Democrats hold a generic ballot edge amid voter concerns over prices and foreign policy. Republican-held seats in these states face pressure from the broader midterm dynamics, while Democratic-held battlegrounds like Michigan and Georgia remain closely watched for turnout and candidate positioning. The November 3 election date leaves limited time for late shifts in these battlegrounds.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.

The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$62,628
结束日期
2026-11-03
市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests appear positioned for narrow margins due to open seats from retirements including Thom Tillis in North Carolina, Gary Peters in Michigan, and Joni Ernst in Iowa, combined with strong challengers such as former Governor Roy Cooper. Recent polling aggregates show races in Maine, Michigan, Georgia, Ohio, Texas, Alaska, and Iowa within or near single digits, reflecting a national environment where Democrats hold a generic ballot edge amid voter concerns over prices and foreign policy. Republican-held seats in these states face pressure from the broader midterm dynamics, while Democratic-held battlegrounds like Michigan and Georgia remain closely watched for turnout and candidate positioning. The November 3 election date leaves limited time for late shifts in these battlegrounds.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.

The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$62,628
结束日期
2026-11-03
市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET

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常见问题

"哪些参议院竞选将在5%以内?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 18 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"德克萨斯州",概率为 84%,其次是"Kansas",概率为 70%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 84¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 84%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"哪些参议院竞选将在5%以内?"已产生 $62.6K 的总交易量(自Jul 29, 2026市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"哪些参议院竞选将在5%以内?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 18 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"哪些参议院竞选将在5%以内?"的当前领先者是"德克萨斯州",概率为 84%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 84%。紧随其后的结果是"Kansas",概率为 70%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"哪些参议院竞选将在5%以内?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。