Several toss-up and lean Senate contests in 2026 feature polling margins consistently under five points, including Maine, Ohio, Texas, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, and North Carolina. Retirements created open seats in Michigan and North Carolina while strong challengers emerged elsewhere, such as Mary Peltola in Alaska and Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Low presidential approval amid economic pressures and foreign policy developments has narrowed historical partisan gaps in these battlegrounds. Recent September surveys show single-digit or tied results in the closest races, with voter turnout patterns and final candidate positioning expected to determine outcomes by November 3. Trader consensus on within-5% resolutions reflects these narrow fundamentals and limited polling volatility.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$62,628 交易量
2026-11-03
德克萨斯州
84%
Kansas
71%
阿拉斯加
68%
密歇根州
62%
爱荷华州
62%
俄亥俄州（特别）
57%
缅因州
53%
新罕布什尔州
60%
内布拉斯加州
50%
South Carolina
43%
佐治亚州
27%
佛罗里达（特别）
25%
明尼苏达州
20%
北卡罗来纳州
14%
新墨西哥州
12%
蒙大拿州
9%
弗吉尼亚州
5%
科罗拉多州
4%
$62,628 交易量
德克萨斯州
$7,129 交易量
84%
Kansas
$556 交易量
71%
阿拉斯加
$2,789 交易量
68%
密歇根州
$2,735 交易量
62%
爱荷华州
$5,645 交易量
62%
俄亥俄州（特别）
$3,936 交易量
57%
缅因州
$1,020 交易量
53%
新罕布什尔州
$2,352 交易量
60%
内布拉斯加州
$3,687 交易量
50%
South Carolina
$109 交易量
43%
佐治亚州
$1,394 交易量
27%
佛罗里达（特别）
$2,450 交易量
25%
明尼苏达州
$9,715 交易量
20%
北卡罗来纳州
$5,584 交易量
14%
新墨西哥州
$6,665 交易量
12%
蒙大拿州
$2,919 交易量
9%
弗吉尼亚州
$1,344 交易量
5%
科罗拉多州
$2,599 交易量
4%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several toss-up and lean Senate contests in 2026 feature polling margins consistently under five points, including Maine, Ohio, Texas, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, and North Carolina. Retirements created open seats in Michigan and North Carolina while strong challengers emerged elsewhere, such as Mary Peltola in Alaska and Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Low presidential approval amid economic pressures and foreign policy developments has narrowed historical partisan gaps in these battlegrounds. Recent September surveys show single-digit or tied results in the closest races, with voter turnout patterns and final candidate positioning expected to determine outcomes by November 3. Trader consensus on within-5% resolutions reflects these narrow fundamentals and limited polling volatility.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
交易量
$62,628结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETThe 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several toss-up and lean Senate contests in 2026 feature polling margins consistently under five points, including Maine, Ohio, Texas, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, and North Carolina. Retirements created open seats in Michigan and North Carolina while strong challengers emerged elsewhere, such as Mary Peltola in Alaska and Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Low presidential approval amid economic pressures and foreign policy developments has narrowed historical partisan gaps in these battlegrounds. Recent September surveys show single-digit or tied results in the closest races, with voter turnout patterns and final candidate positioning expected to determine outcomes by November 3. Trader consensus on within-5% resolutions reflects these narrow fundamentals and limited polling volatility.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$62,628结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETSeveral toss-up and lean Senate contests in 2026 feature polling margins consistently under five points, including Maine, Ohio, Texas, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, and North Carolina. Retirements created open seats in Michigan and North Carolina while strong challengers emerged elsewhere, such as Mary Peltola in Alaska and Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Low presidential approval amid economic pressures and foreign policy developments has narrowed historical partisan gaps in these battlegrounds. Recent September surveys show single-digit or tied results in the closest races, with voter turnout patterns and final candidate positioning expected to determine outcomes by November 3. Trader consensus on within-5% resolutions reflects these narrow fundamentals and limited polling volatility.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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