Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party has risen to lead or tie Likud in most recent Knesset polls ahead of the October 27 election, positioning him as the frontrunner for prime minister at 49.6% market odds. Voters appear drawn to his record as former IDF chief of staff, hawkish security stance, and personal losses in the Gaza conflict, contrasting with lingering dissatisfaction over security lapses since October 2023 and Netanyahu’s extended tenure. Netanyahu’s Likud bloc hovers near 50 seats in averages, short of a majority, while Bennett’s Together list trails in third place amid fragmentation in the opposition. Lieberman, Golan, and smaller parties factor into potential coalition arithmetic, but current seat projections and head-to-head PM preference surveys keep the contest between Eisenkot and Netanyahu tight.