Trump’s expansive use of the pardon power during his second term has centered on January 6 defendants, political allies facing charges tied to the 2020 election cycle, and select individuals convicted of financial or regulatory offenses. Since taking office in January 2025, he has issued blanket clemency for nearly all Capitol riot cases on day one, followed by additional grants in batches through mid-2026—including to former lawmakers and business figures—reflecting priorities around perceived prosecutorial overreach and loyalty. With roughly four months remaining before 2027, trader focus centers on whether further high-profile recipients, such as those in ongoing appeals or linked to administration allies, receive clemency amid routine White House announcements. Historical patterns show presidents often time such actions around political milestones or holidays, creating potential catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities.