Hawaii's position in the central Pacific, combined with prevailing easterly trade winds and typical storm tracks, has made direct hurricane landfalls exceptionally rare, with only two or three recorded since the mid-20th century despite an average of four to five tropical cyclones forming in the basin annually. The small island chain presents a narrow target, and most systems are deflected westward or northward before reaching it, as seen in recent seasons with close passes but limited impacts. The 2026 central Pacific outlook calls for above-normal activity through November, yet current modeling for early systems like Hurricane Fausto shows tracks favoring misses north of the islands. Trader consensus at 94% for no landfall before 2027 reflects this climatology and the limited remaining window, though an atypical steering pattern or late-season intensification could still produce a direct hit.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于飓风会在2027年之前登陆夏威夷吗？
飓风会在2027年之前登陆夏威夷吗？
是
最新
最新
2027-01-01
是
最新
最新
2027-01-01
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, this market will resolve to "Yes" based on that correction.Hawaii's position in the central Pacific, combined with prevailing easterly trade winds and typical storm tracks, has made direct hurricane landfalls exceptionally rare, with only two or three recorded since the mid-20th century despite an average of four to five tropical cyclones forming in the basin annually. The small island chain presents a narrow target, and most systems are deflected westward or northward before reaching it, as seen in recent seasons with close passes but limited impacts. The 2026 central Pacific outlook calls for above-normal activity through November, yet current modeling for early systems like Hurricane Fausto shows tracks favoring misses north of the islands. Trader consensus at 94% for no landfall before 2027 reflects this climatology and the limited remaining window, though an atypical steering pattern or late-season intensification could still produce a direct hit.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, this market will resolve to "Yes" based on that correction.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, this market will resolve to "Yes" based on that correction.
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2026, 11:28 AM ET
交易量
$20结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 11:28 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, this market will resolve to "Yes" based on that correction.Hawaii's position in the central Pacific, combined with prevailing easterly trade winds and typical storm tracks, has made direct hurricane landfalls exceptionally rare, with only two or three recorded since the mid-20th century despite an average of four to five tropical cyclones forming in the basin annually. The small island chain presents a narrow target, and most systems are deflected westward or northward before reaching it, as seen in recent seasons with close passes but limited impacts. The 2026 central Pacific outlook calls for above-normal activity through November, yet current modeling for early systems like Hurricane Fausto shows tracks favoring misses north of the islands. Trader consensus at 94% for no landfall before 2027 reflects this climatology and the limited remaining window, though an atypical steering pattern or late-season intensification could still produce a direct hit.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, this market will resolve to "Yes" based on that correction.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, this market will resolve to "Yes" based on that correction.
交易量
$20结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 11:28 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Hawaii's position in the central Pacific, combined with prevailing easterly trade winds and typical storm tracks, has made direct hurricane landfalls exceptionally rare, with only two or three recorded since the mid-20th century despite an average of four to five tropical cyclones forming in the basin annually. The small island chain presents a narrow target, and most systems are deflected westward or northward before reaching it, as seen in recent seasons with close passes but limited impacts. The 2026 central Pacific outlook calls for above-normal activity through November, yet current modeling for early systems like Hurricane Fausto shows tracks favoring misses north of the islands. Trader consensus at 94% for no landfall before 2027 reflects this climatology and the limited remaining window, though an atypical steering pattern or late-season intensification could still produce a direct hit.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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