The near-certain 98.8% implied probability against any 2026 World Cup match relocation from Mexico stems from FIFA's repeated public assurances that all scheduled venues, including Estadio Akron in Guadalajara and Estadio Azteca, remain on track with enhanced security protocols in place. No official statements from the governing body, Mexican authorities, or co-host partners have triggered contingency clauses in venue agreements, despite earlier cartel-related concerns that prompted only routine monitoring rather than action. Preparation milestones such as completed stadium renovations and finalized group-stage assignments further anchor trader consensus around stability. A sudden escalation in localized security threats formally flagged by FIFA's safety committee could still force a last-minute shift to U.S. or Canadian sites, though such a step remains a remote possibility at this stage.