**No major seismic events have occurred in California through mid-August 2026, with the largest recorded at magnitude 5.6 near Redwood Valley in June.** USGS monitoring shows only typical small-magnitude activity and minor swarms, consistent with background rates rather than precursors to a large rupture. Long-term models such as UCERF3 place the statewide probability of a magnitude 7+ event in any given year well below 10 percent, reflecting recurrence intervals of decades to centuries on major faults like the San Andreas. With roughly 4.5 months remaining, trader consensus at 95.9 percent for no such quake reflects both the elapsed period without escalation and the narrow remaining window. A sudden multifault rupture remains possible but would require rapid strain release not indicated by current seismic or geodetic data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于加利福尼亚州会在2026年经历7.0级或以上的地震吗？
加利福尼亚州会在2026年经历7.0级或以上的地震吗？
4% 概率
最新
最新
2027-01-01
4% 概率
最新
最新
2027-01-01
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable. **No major seismic events have occurred in California through mid-August 2026, with the largest recorded at magnitude 5.6 near Redwood Valley in June.** USGS monitoring shows only typical small-magnitude activity and minor swarms, consistent with background rates rather than precursors to a large rupture. Long-term models such as UCERF3 place the statewide probability of a magnitude 7+ event in any given year well below 10 percent, reflecting recurrence intervals of decades to centuries on major faults like the San Andreas. With roughly 4.5 months remaining, trader consensus at 95.9 percent for no such quake reflects both the elapsed period without escalation and the narrow remaining window. A sudden multifault rupture remains possible but would require rapid strain release not indicated by current seismic or geodetic data.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
交易量
$3,331结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable. **No major seismic events have occurred in California through mid-August 2026, with the largest recorded at magnitude 5.6 near Redwood Valley in June.** USGS monitoring shows only typical small-magnitude activity and minor swarms, consistent with background rates rather than precursors to a large rupture. Long-term models such as UCERF3 place the statewide probability of a magnitude 7+ event in any given year well below 10 percent, reflecting recurrence intervals of decades to centuries on major faults like the San Andreas. With roughly 4.5 months remaining, trader consensus at 95.9 percent for no such quake reflects both the elapsed period without escalation and the narrow remaining window. A sudden multifault rupture remains possible but would require rapid strain release not indicated by current seismic or geodetic data.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
交易量
$3,331结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No major seismic events have occurred in California through mid-August 2026, with the largest recorded at magnitude 5.6 near Redwood Valley in June.** USGS monitoring shows only typical small-magnitude activity and minor swarms, consistent with background rates rather than precursors to a large rupture. Long-term models such as UCERF3 place the statewide probability of a magnitude 7+ event in any given year well below 10 percent, reflecting recurrence intervals of decades to centuries on major faults like the San Andreas. With roughly 4.5 months remaining, trader consensus at 95.9 percent for no such quake reflects both the elapsed period without escalation and the narrow remaining window. A sudden multifault rupture remains possible but would require rapid strain release not indicated by current seismic or geodetic data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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