Federal immigration policy tightening, including the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan's sharp cuts to temporary resident admissions and targets to reduce the non-permanent resident share below 5 percent, continues to drive net outflows that offset permanent resident gains. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections released in February 2026 forecast flat overall population growth for the year—the second consecutive such outcome—following record quarterly declines in 2025, including a 76,000 drop in Q3. This policy-driven normalization, with modest rebound expected only in 2027, underpins trader consensus that any 2026 annual decline is unlikely to set a new record, reflected in the 60 percent "No" implied probability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
最新
最新
2027-04-30
最新
最新
2027-04-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Federal immigration policy tightening, including the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan's sharp cuts to temporary resident admissions and targets to reduce the non-permanent resident share below 5 percent, continues to drive net outflows that offset permanent resident gains. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections released in February 2026 forecast flat overall population growth for the year—the second consecutive such outcome—following record quarterly declines in 2025, including a 76,000 drop in Q3. This policy-driven normalization, with modest rebound expected only in 2027, underpins trader consensus that any 2026 annual decline is unlikely to set a new record, reflected in the 60 percent "No" implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
交易量
$1,803结束日期
2027-04-30市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Federal immigration policy tightening, including the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan's sharp cuts to temporary resident admissions and targets to reduce the non-permanent resident share below 5 percent, continues to drive net outflows that offset permanent resident gains. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections released in February 2026 forecast flat overall population growth for the year—the second consecutive such outcome—following record quarterly declines in 2025, including a 76,000 drop in Q3. This policy-driven normalization, with modest rebound expected only in 2027, underpins trader consensus that any 2026 annual decline is unlikely to set a new record, reflected in the 60 percent "No" implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$1,803结束日期
2027-04-30市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Federal immigration policy tightening, including the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan's sharp cuts to temporary resident admissions and targets to reduce the non-permanent resident share below 5 percent, continues to drive net outflows that offset permanent resident gains. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections released in February 2026 forecast flat overall population growth for the year—the second consecutive such outcome—following record quarterly declines in 2025, including a 76,000 drop in Q3. This policy-driven normalization, with modest rebound expected only in 2027, underpins trader consensus that any 2026 annual decline is unlikely to set a new record, reflected in the 60 percent "No" implied probability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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