**The primary driver behind the 91.5% market-implied probability for "No" on a 2026 engagement is the confirmed February 2026 split.** Cardi B publicly referenced being done with her "baby daddy" during her Little Miss Drama Tour after the couple unfollowed each other on Instagram around Super Bowl LX, following the birth of their son in November 2025. Subsequent reports from verified outlets describe them as former partners focused on co-parenting, with no official reconciliation announced despite occasional friendly sightings, such as PDA at a May 2026 Mother's Day event. Diggs had earlier called engagement "on the agenda" during pre-Super Bowl media, but that momentum halted with the breakup. By September 2026, Cardi was linked to other figures without confirming new romance, and no credible reports indicate a renewed commitment or proposal. With only months remaining in 2026 and high volatility typical of celebrity relationships, traders see limited realistic paths to an engagement absent a sudden, publicly verified development.