Trader consensus on the low likelihood of a 2026 engagement stems from the couple’s documented on-and-off relationship, including a reported split in early 2026 amid trust issues after welcoming their son in November 2025. Public unfollows, social media signals, and Cardi B’s July 2026 lyrics implying the romance had ended have reinforced perceptions of instability, with recent September updates confirming the pair appear focused on co-parenting rather than reconciliation. While Stefon Diggs teased marriage plans before the Super Bowl, the absence of confirmed romantic developments since the February split, combined with Cardi B’s emphasis on her tour and family priorities, has solidified the market-implied odds. Limited time remains in the year for any turnaround.