The CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition, formed in May 2025 after snap elections and led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, has navigated internal differences on taxes, welfare, and health reforms while delivering a July 2026 growth package including income tax relief and pension adjustments. Both parties share governing experience from prior grand coalitions and face strong incentives to maintain stability against the rising AfD, which leads polls but remains excluded from power. Public satisfaction remains low at around 13 percent, yet no confidence vote, major budget impasse, or leadership shift has emerged to threaten the arrangement before the 2029 term end. Traders assign an 87.5 percent probability that the coalition holds through 2027, reflecting these structural and recent collaborative signals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
13% 概率
$71,560 交易量
$71,560 交易量
2026-12-31
是
13% 概率
$71,560 交易量
$71,560 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.The CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition, formed in May 2025 after snap elections and led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, has navigated internal differences on taxes, welfare, and health reforms while delivering a July 2026 growth package including income tax relief and pension adjustments. Both parties share governing experience from prior grand coalitions and face strong incentives to maintain stability against the rising AfD, which leads polls but remains excluded from power. Public satisfaction remains low at around 13 percent, yet no confidence vote, major budget impasse, or leadership shift has emerged to threaten the arrangement before the 2029 term end. Traders assign an 87.5 percent probability that the coalition holds through 2027, reflecting these structural and recent collaborative signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 3, 2025, 12:16 PM ET
交易量
$71,560结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 3, 2025, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.The CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition, formed in May 2025 after snap elections and led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, has navigated internal differences on taxes, welfare, and health reforms while delivering a July 2026 growth package including income tax relief and pension adjustments. Both parties share governing experience from prior grand coalitions and face strong incentives to maintain stability against the rising AfD, which leads polls but remains excluded from power. Public satisfaction remains low at around 13 percent, yet no confidence vote, major budget impasse, or leadership shift has emerged to threaten the arrangement before the 2029 term end. Traders assign an 87.5 percent probability that the coalition holds through 2027, reflecting these structural and recent collaborative signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
交易量
$71,560结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 3, 2025, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition, formed in May 2025 after snap elections and led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, has navigated internal differences on taxes, welfare, and health reforms while delivering a July 2026 growth package including income tax relief and pension adjustments. Both parties share governing experience from prior grand coalitions and face strong incentives to maintain stability against the rising AfD, which leads polls but remains excluded from power. Public satisfaction remains low at around 13 percent, yet no confidence vote, major budget impasse, or leadership shift has emerged to threaten the arrangement before the 2029 term end. Traders assign an 87.5 percent probability that the coalition holds through 2027, reflecting these structural and recent collaborative signals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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