The CDU/CSU–SPD grand coalition under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, formed after the February 2025 federal election, faces ongoing strains from the SPD’s weak polling (around 12–15%) and losses in multiple 2026 state elections, yet both parties share strong incentives to complete the term through at least December 2026. Recent negotiations produced a broad growth and reform package in a short timeframe, underscoring procedural cooperation despite ministry distribution disputes and economic pressures. Historical patterns of grand coalitions enduring full parliamentary terms, combined with the absence of viable alternative majorities and risks of early elections boosting the AfD, reinforce trader consensus reflected in the 87.5% “No” probability. Scheduled regional votes and budget deadlines through year-end remain the main near-term tests, but no formal withdrawal signals or collapse triggers have emerged.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
13% 概率
$71,560 交易量
$71,560 交易量
2026-12-31
是
13% 概率
$71,560 交易量
$71,560 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.The CDU/CSU–SPD grand coalition under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, formed after the February 2025 federal election, faces ongoing strains from the SPD’s weak polling (around 12–15%) and losses in multiple 2026 state elections, yet both parties share strong incentives to complete the term through at least December 2026. Recent negotiations produced a broad growth and reform package in a short timeframe, underscoring procedural cooperation despite ministry distribution disputes and economic pressures. Historical patterns of grand coalitions enduring full parliamentary terms, combined with the absence of viable alternative majorities and risks of early elections boosting the AfD, reinforce trader consensus reflected in the 87.5% “No” probability. Scheduled regional votes and budget deadlines through year-end remain the main near-term tests, but no formal withdrawal signals or collapse triggers have emerged.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 3, 2025, 12:16 PM ET
交易量
$71,560结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 3, 2025, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.The CDU/CSU–SPD grand coalition under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, formed after the February 2025 federal election, faces ongoing strains from the SPD’s weak polling (around 12–15%) and losses in multiple 2026 state elections, yet both parties share strong incentives to complete the term through at least December 2026. Recent negotiations produced a broad growth and reform package in a short timeframe, underscoring procedural cooperation despite ministry distribution disputes and economic pressures. Historical patterns of grand coalitions enduring full parliamentary terms, combined with the absence of viable alternative majorities and risks of early elections boosting the AfD, reinforce trader consensus reflected in the 87.5% “No” probability. Scheduled regional votes and budget deadlines through year-end remain the main near-term tests, but no formal withdrawal signals or collapse triggers have emerged.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
交易量
$71,560结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 3, 2025, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The CDU/CSU–SPD grand coalition under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, formed after the February 2025 federal election, faces ongoing strains from the SPD’s weak polling (around 12–15%) and losses in multiple 2026 state elections, yet both parties share strong incentives to complete the term through at least December 2026. Recent negotiations produced a broad growth and reform package in a short timeframe, underscoring procedural cooperation despite ministry distribution disputes and economic pressures. Historical patterns of grand coalitions enduring full parliamentary terms, combined with the absence of viable alternative majorities and risks of early elections boosting the AfD, reinforce trader consensus reflected in the 87.5% “No” probability. Scheduled regional votes and budget deadlines through year-end remain the main near-term tests, but no formal withdrawal signals or collapse triggers have emerged.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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