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icon for 乔治· R · R ·马丁（ George R. R. Martin ）是否会在2026年宣布“冬天的风” ？

乔治· R · R ·马丁（ George R. R. Martin ）是否会在2026年宣布“冬天的风” ？

icon for 乔治· R · R ·马丁（ George R. R. Martin ）是否会在2026年宣布“冬天的风” ？

乔治· R · R ·马丁（ George R. R. Martin ）是否会在2026年宣布“冬天的风” ？

是

13% 概率
Polymarket

$14,250 交易量

是

13% 概率
Polymarket

$14,250 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.The market's overwhelming 87.5% "No" probability reflects George R.R. Martin's entrenched history of delays on The Winds of Winter, with no credible signs of an imminent announcement as of mid-2026. Publisher Bantam Books recently debunked viral April rumors of a fall 2026 release tied to a supposed completed manuscript, labeling the leaks false and reinforcing stalled progress. Martin last reported roughly 1,100 pages finished in early 2026 interviews, yet his Not a Blog updates have been sparse since February amid ongoing distractions from TV projects and other commitments. Traders see little momentum shift ahead of summer conventions or chart updates, consistent with the 15-year gap since A Dance with Dragons and repeated unfulfilled timelines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$14,250
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Jan 15, 2026, 7:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.The market's overwhelming 87.5% "No" probability reflects George R.R. Martin's entrenched history of delays on The Winds of Winter, with no credible signs of an imminent announcement as of mid-2026. Publisher Bantam Books recently debunked viral April rumors of a fall 2026 release tied to a supposed completed manuscript, labeling the leaks false and reinforcing stalled progress. Martin last reported roughly 1,100 pages finished in early 2026 interviews, yet his Not a Blog updates have been sparse since February amid ongoing distractions from TV projects and other commitments. Traders see little momentum shift ahead of summer conventions or chart updates, consistent with the 15-year gap since A Dance with Dragons and repeated unfulfilled timelines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$14,250
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Jan 15, 2026, 7:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"乔治· R · R ·马丁（ George R. R. Martin ）是否会在2026年宣布“冬天的风” ？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"乔治·R·R·马丁会在2026年宣布《凛冬的寒风》吗？"，概率为 13%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 13¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 13%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"乔治· R · R ·马丁（ George R. R. Martin ）是否会在2026年宣布“冬天的风” ？"已产生 $14.3K 的总交易量（自Jan 16, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"乔治· R · R ·马丁（ George R. R. Martin ）是否会在2026年宣布“冬天的风” ？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"乔治· R · R ·马丁（ George R. R. Martin ）是否会在2026年宣布“冬天的风” ？"的当前领先者是"乔治·R·R·马丁会在2026年宣布《凛冬的寒风》吗？"，概率为 13%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 13%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"乔治· R · R ·马丁（ George R. R. Martin ）是否会在2026年宣布“冬天的风” ？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。