Greenland’s current government, formed after the 2025 parliamentary election victory by the gradualist Demokraatit party, has prioritized economic self-sufficiency over a rapid path to sovereignty under the 2009 Self-Government Act. That framework requires Inatsisartut approval, negotiations with Denmark, and dual referendums before full independence, yet polls show majority backing only if living standards are preserved amid heavy reliance on the Danish block grant. Recent U.S. interest in the territory prompted Greenland’s leadership to publicly reaffirm ties with Denmark in early 2026, further cooling momentum for an immediate vote. With no referendum scheduled for the remainder of the year and structural economic hurdles persisting, traders assign just 4.5% odds to a 2026 ballot. Late developments such as major resource revenues, a government collapse, or external diplomatic shocks could still reopen the timeline.