Max Verstappen’s long-term Red Bull contract running through 2028 remains the dominant factor anchoring the 91% “No” probability, as the four-time champion has reaffirmed his commitment without any official retirement signals midway through the 2026 season. At age 28, the Dutch driver continues to compete at an elite level despite occasional frustration with the new regulations, recent mechanical retirements such as Monaco, and mixed results including an eighth-place finish in Japan. No performance clauses have been triggered, and recent reports confirm ongoing focus on the current campaign rather than an exit, aligning trader consensus with his history of prioritizing wins and team stability over premature departure.