Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects skepticism toward OpenAI launching a full-fledged social network in 2026, with "No" at a 57.5% implied probability following the March 2026 shutdown of its Sora AI video app—a TikTok-like social platform that launched in September 2025 but struggled with declining downloads, user backlash over "creepy" deepfakes, and unmet engagement goals. Earlier prototypes reported in April 2025 and a small-team "real humans only" effort leaked in January 2026 using biometrics like Worldcoin or Face ID have yielded no public beta or standalone release, amid OpenAI's pivot to core AI priorities like Codex enterprise tools and GPT model upgrades. With seven months left, competitive pressures from Meta and X, plus regulatory scrutiny on AI content moderation, reinforce doubts absent an official announcement.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$45,969 交易量
$45,969 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$45,969 交易量
$45,969 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects skepticism toward OpenAI launching a full-fledged social network in 2026, with "No" at a 57.5% implied probability following the March 2026 shutdown of its Sora AI video app—a TikTok-like social platform that launched in September 2025 but struggled with declining downloads, user backlash over "creepy" deepfakes, and unmet engagement goals. Earlier prototypes reported in April 2025 and a small-team "real humans only" effort leaked in January 2026 using biometrics like Worldcoin or Face ID have yielded no public beta or standalone release, amid OpenAI's pivot to core AI priorities like Codex enterprise tools and GPT model upgrades. With seven months left, competitive pressures from Meta and X, plus regulatory scrutiny on AI content moderation, reinforce doubts absent an official announcement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
交易量
$45,969结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects skepticism toward OpenAI launching a full-fledged social network in 2026, with "No" at a 57.5% implied probability following the March 2026 shutdown of its Sora AI video app—a TikTok-like social platform that launched in September 2025 but struggled with declining downloads, user backlash over "creepy" deepfakes, and unmet engagement goals. Earlier prototypes reported in April 2025 and a small-team "real humans only" effort leaked in January 2026 using biometrics like Worldcoin or Face ID have yielded no public beta or standalone release, amid OpenAI's pivot to core AI priorities like Codex enterprise tools and GPT model upgrades. With seven months left, competitive pressures from Meta and X, plus regulatory scrutiny on AI content moderation, reinforce doubts absent an official announcement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$45,969结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects skepticism toward OpenAI launching a full-fledged social network in 2026, with "No" at a 57.5% implied probability following the March 2026 shutdown of its Sora AI video app—a TikTok-like social platform that launched in September 2025 but struggled with declining downloads, user backlash over "creepy" deepfakes, and unmet engagement goals. Earlier prototypes reported in April 2025 and a small-team "real humans only" effort leaked in January 2026 using biometrics like Worldcoin or Face ID have yielded no public beta or standalone release, amid OpenAI's pivot to core AI priorities like Codex enterprise tools and GPT model upgrades. With seven months left, competitive pressures from Meta and X, plus regulatory scrutiny on AI content moderation, reinforce doubts absent an official announcement.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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