Russian forces have sustained limited offensive operations and infiltration attempts with small assault groups around Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast through mid-September 2026, employing drones, glide bombs, and artillery while probing western and southern approaches. Independent assessments confirm no verified Russian territorial gains or consolidation inside the town, with Ukrainian units reporting successful repulsion of sabotage groups and maintenance of defensive positions. Russian sources describe operational pressure and supply disruptions, yet Ukrainian statements emphasize full control and stabilization. Trader consensus reflected in low probabilities for near-term capture aligns with the pattern of incremental Russian efforts constrained by Ukrainian defensive responses and the absence of decisive breakthroughs on this sector of the southern front.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$292,337 交易量
2026-09-30
9月30日
5%
12月31日
35%
$292,337 交易量
9月30日
$162,754 交易量
5%
12月31日
$129,582 交易量
35%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png
Train station location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png
Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have sustained limited offensive operations and infiltration attempts with small assault groups around Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast through mid-September 2026, employing drones, glide bombs, and artillery while probing western and southern approaches. Independent assessments confirm no verified Russian territorial gains or consolidation inside the town, with Ukrainian units reporting successful repulsion of sabotage groups and maintenance of defensive positions. Russian sources describe operational pressure and supply disruptions, yet Ukrainian statements emphasize full control and stabilization. Trader consensus reflected in low probabilities for near-term capture aligns with the pattern of incremental Russian efforts constrained by Ukrainian defensive responses and the absence of decisive breakthroughs on this sector of the southern front.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png
Train station location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png
Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png
Train station location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png
Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
市场开放时间： May 21, 2026, 1:38 PM ET
交易量
$292,337结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 21, 2026, 1:38 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png
Train station location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png
Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have sustained limited offensive operations and infiltration attempts with small assault groups around Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast through mid-September 2026, employing drones, glide bombs, and artillery while probing western and southern approaches. Independent assessments confirm no verified Russian territorial gains or consolidation inside the town, with Ukrainian units reporting successful repulsion of sabotage groups and maintenance of defensive positions. Russian sources describe operational pressure and supply disruptions, yet Ukrainian statements emphasize full control and stabilization. Trader consensus reflected in low probabilities for near-term capture aligns with the pattern of incremental Russian efforts constrained by Ukrainian defensive responses and the absence of decisive breakthroughs on this sector of the southern front.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png
Train station location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png
Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png
Train station location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png
Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
交易量
$292,337结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 21, 2026, 1:38 PM ETRussian forces have sustained limited offensive operations and infiltration attempts with small assault groups around Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast through mid-September 2026, employing drones, glide bombs, and artillery while probing western and southern approaches. Independent assessments confirm no verified Russian territorial gains or consolidation inside the town, with Ukrainian units reporting successful repulsion of sabotage groups and maintenance of defensive positions. Russian sources describe operational pressure and supply disruptions, yet Ukrainian statements emphasize full control and stabilization. Trader consensus reflected in low probabilities for near-term capture aligns with the pattern of incremental Russian efforts constrained by Ukrainian defensive responses and the absence of decisive breakthroughs on this sector of the southern front.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题