**Russian forces have conducted repeated but unsuccessful assaults on Stavky, a small settlement northwest of Lyman in Donetsk Oblast, as part of broader attritional operations in the Lyman sector.** Ukrainian units, including the 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade, have repelled multiple infiltration attempts and larger attacks, with Russian claims of capture in late 2025 dismissed by Ukrainian command as propaganda involving small groups filming staged videos. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this defensive record, pricing short-term capture probabilities low (around 10-20% for deadlines like July or September 2026) based on sustained Ukrainian control of key intersections and the village's role in shielding approaches to Lyman. The wider Donbas front remains characterized by incremental Russian pressure without decisive breakthroughs, influenced by Ukrainian fortifications, manpower constraints on both sides, and stalled diplomatic efforts. Resolution relies on verified mapping sources such as ISW or DeepStateMap confirming territorial control by the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$128,281 交易量
2026-09-30
9月30日
3%
$128,281 交易量
9月30日
$30,820 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 49.048958° N, 37.829063° E in Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky1.png
Intersection Location in Stavky: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky2.png
Stavky Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/As9xRqw7yvEiQGSh8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.**Russian forces have conducted repeated but unsuccessful assaults on Stavky, a small settlement northwest of Lyman in Donetsk Oblast, as part of broader attritional operations in the Lyman sector.** Ukrainian units, including the 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade, have repelled multiple infiltration attempts and larger attacks, with Russian claims of capture in late 2025 dismissed by Ukrainian command as propaganda involving small groups filming staged videos.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this defensive record, pricing short-term capture probabilities low (around 10-20% for deadlines like July or September 2026) based on sustained Ukrainian control of key intersections and the village's role in shielding approaches to Lyman. The wider Donbas front remains characterized by incremental Russian pressure without decisive breakthroughs, influenced by Ukrainian fortifications, manpower constraints on both sides, and stalled diplomatic efforts. Resolution relies on verified mapping sources such as ISW or DeepStateMap confirming territorial control by the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 49.048958° N, 37.829063° E in Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky1.png
Intersection Location in Stavky: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky2.png
Stavky Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/As9xRqw7yvEiQGSh8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky1.png
Intersection Location in Stavky: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky2.png
Stavky Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/As9xRqw7yvEiQGSh8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jun 24, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
交易量
$128,281结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jun 24, 2026, 9:02 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 49.048958° N, 37.829063° E in Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky1.png
Intersection Location in Stavky: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky2.png
Stavky Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/As9xRqw7yvEiQGSh8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.**Russian forces have conducted repeated but unsuccessful assaults on Stavky, a small settlement northwest of Lyman in Donetsk Oblast, as part of broader attritional operations in the Lyman sector.** Ukrainian units, including the 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade, have repelled multiple infiltration attempts and larger attacks, with Russian claims of capture in late 2025 dismissed by Ukrainian command as propaganda involving small groups filming staged videos.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this defensive record, pricing short-term capture probabilities low (around 10-20% for deadlines like July or September 2026) based on sustained Ukrainian control of key intersections and the village's role in shielding approaches to Lyman. The wider Donbas front remains characterized by incremental Russian pressure without decisive breakthroughs, influenced by Ukrainian fortifications, manpower constraints on both sides, and stalled diplomatic efforts. Resolution relies on verified mapping sources such as ISW or DeepStateMap confirming territorial control by the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 49.048958° N, 37.829063° E in Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky1.png
Intersection Location in Stavky: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky2.png
Stavky Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/As9xRqw7yvEiQGSh8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky1.png
Intersection Location in Stavky: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky2.png
Stavky Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/As9xRqw7yvEiQGSh8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
交易量
$128,281结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jun 24, 2026, 9:02 PM ET**Russian forces have conducted repeated but unsuccessful assaults on Stavky, a small settlement northwest of Lyman in Donetsk Oblast, as part of broader attritional operations in the Lyman sector.** Ukrainian units, including the 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade, have repelled multiple infiltration attempts and larger attacks, with Russian claims of capture in late 2025 dismissed by Ukrainian command as propaganda involving small groups filming staged videos. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this defensive record, pricing short-term capture probabilities low (around 10-20% for deadlines like July or September 2026) based on sustained Ukrainian control of key intersections and the village's role in shielding approaches to Lyman. The wider Donbas front remains characterized by incremental Russian pressure without decisive breakthroughs, influenced by Ukrainian fortifications, manpower constraints on both sides, and stalled diplomatic efforts. Resolution relies on verified mapping sources such as ISW or DeepStateMap confirming territorial control by the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题