Russia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine continues to commit the majority of its conventional forces and resources, constraining immediate capacity for a direct conventional invasion of NATO territory. Dutch military intelligence and U.S. officials have noted that Moscow is preparing for potential post-Ukraine repositioning toward the eastern flank, with hybrid operations—such as undersea cable disruptions and airspace probes—already testing alliance cohesion. NATO has strengthened forward deployments and support for Ukraine while monitoring Russian imperial ambitions that extend beyond current lines of contact. Any negotiated pause or settlement in Ukraine would likely accelerate force rebalancing, raising the prospect of limited probes or salami-slicing tactics against frontline members, though full-scale invasion faces significant logistical and deterrence barriers in the current environment.