Tesla's Robovan remains a 2024 concept vehicle without an announced production schedule, pre-order window, or regulatory certification path, which anchors the market's 83% implied probability that orders will not open before 2027. Following its October 2024 "We, Robot" debut, development has focused instead on the Cybercab robotaxi platform targeting 2026 output and limited autonomous rides using existing Model Y vehicles in select cities. Analysts cite Tesla's history of autonomous vehicle timeline slips, ongoing full self-driving regulatory scrutiny, and the absence of supply-chain or certification milestones as key barriers. No near-term catalysts, such as a dedicated unveil or supplier announcements, appear likely to shift this consensus before late 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$31,497 交易量
$31,497 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$31,497 交易量
$31,497 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tesla's Robovan remains a 2024 concept vehicle without an announced production schedule, pre-order window, or regulatory certification path, which anchors the market's 83% implied probability that orders will not open before 2027. Following its October 2024 "We, Robot" debut, development has focused instead on the Cybercab robotaxi platform targeting 2026 output and limited autonomous rides using existing Model Y vehicles in select cities. Analysts cite Tesla's history of autonomous vehicle timeline slips, ongoing full self-driving regulatory scrutiny, and the absence of supply-chain or certification milestones as key barriers. No near-term catalysts, such as a dedicated unveil or supplier announcements, appear likely to shift this consensus before late 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ET
交易量
$31,497结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tesla's Robovan remains a 2024 concept vehicle without an announced production schedule, pre-order window, or regulatory certification path, which anchors the market's 83% implied probability that orders will not open before 2027. Following its October 2024 "We, Robot" debut, development has focused instead on the Cybercab robotaxi platform targeting 2026 output and limited autonomous rides using existing Model Y vehicles in select cities. Analysts cite Tesla's history of autonomous vehicle timeline slips, ongoing full self-driving regulatory scrutiny, and the absence of supply-chain or certification milestones as key barriers. No near-term catalysts, such as a dedicated unveil or supplier announcements, appear likely to shift this consensus before late 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$31,497结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla's Robovan remains a 2024 concept vehicle without an announced production schedule, pre-order window, or regulatory certification path, which anchors the market's 83% implied probability that orders will not open before 2027. Following its October 2024 "We, Robot" debut, development has focused instead on the Cybercab robotaxi platform targeting 2026 output and limited autonomous rides using existing Model Y vehicles in select cities. Analysts cite Tesla's history of autonomous vehicle timeline slips, ongoing full self-driving regulatory scrutiny, and the absence of supply-chain or certification milestones as key barriers. No near-term catalysts, such as a dedicated unveil or supplier announcements, appear likely to shift this consensus before late 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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