Tesla's prioritization of Cybercab robotaxi production and limited commercial deployments in 2026, with no corresponding progress on the Robovan, underpins the market's 94.5% implied probability for no orders before 2027. The larger 20-passenger autonomous van, unveiled as a concept in 2024, lacks announced manufacturing timelines, pricing, or regulatory pathways, as Tesla channels resources into Cybercab scaling, Optimus robotics, and existing vehicle lines amid ongoing autonomy and supply-chain challenges. Traders see the gap between prototype demonstrations and formal preorders or customer orders as too wide to close in the remaining months. A credible executive statement confirming an accelerated schedule or unexpected regulatory clearance could still shift sentiment before year-end.