Tesla’s Cybercab production line at Giga Texas began limited output in early 2026 with volume manufacturing targeted for Q2 onward, yet trader consensus heavily favors the “No” outcome at 75.5% implied probability. Musk has reaffirmed sub-$30,000 pricing goals while shifting explicit confirmation of retail sales at that level to 2027, citing an initially slow ramp, supply-chain debugging, and the need for regulatory approval of unsupervised Full Self-Driving operations before meaningful customer deliveries can occur. Key near-term catalysts include H2 2026 production-rate data, state-level robotaxi permitting decisions, and any formal pricing or availability announcements that could alter the timeline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$40,541 交易量
$40,541 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$40,541 交易量
$40,541 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla’s Cybercab production line at Giga Texas began limited output in early 2026 with volume manufacturing targeted for Q2 onward, yet trader consensus heavily favors the “No” outcome at 75.5% implied probability. Musk has reaffirmed sub-$30,000 pricing goals while shifting explicit confirmation of retail sales at that level to 2027, citing an initially slow ramp, supply-chain debugging, and the need for regulatory approval of unsupervised Full Self-Driving operations before meaningful customer deliveries can occur. Key near-term catalysts include H2 2026 production-rate data, state-level robotaxi permitting decisions, and any formal pricing or availability announcements that could alter the timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
交易量
$40,541结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla’s Cybercab production line at Giga Texas began limited output in early 2026 with volume manufacturing targeted for Q2 onward, yet trader consensus heavily favors the “No” outcome at 75.5% implied probability. Musk has reaffirmed sub-$30,000 pricing goals while shifting explicit confirmation of retail sales at that level to 2027, citing an initially slow ramp, supply-chain debugging, and the need for regulatory approval of unsupervised Full Self-Driving operations before meaningful customer deliveries can occur. Key near-term catalysts include H2 2026 production-rate data, state-level robotaxi permitting decisions, and any formal pricing or availability announcements that could alter the timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$40,541结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla’s Cybercab production line at Giga Texas began limited output in early 2026 with volume manufacturing targeted for Q2 onward, yet trader consensus heavily favors the “No” outcome at 75.5% implied probability. Musk has reaffirmed sub-$30,000 pricing goals while shifting explicit confirmation of retail sales at that level to 2027, citing an initially slow ramp, supply-chain debugging, and the need for regulatory approval of unsupervised Full Self-Driving operations before meaningful customer deliveries can occur. Key near-term catalysts include H2 2026 production-rate data, state-level robotaxi permitting decisions, and any formal pricing or availability announcements that could alter the timeline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题