Despite elevated tensions in 2026, including U.S. executive orders imposing tariffs on Cuba’s oil suppliers, the indictment of Raúl Castro, and naval positioning in the Caribbean following the Venezuela operation, the administration has prioritized maximum economic pressure, sanctions, and conditional humanitarian aid offers alongside backchannel negotiations. Senior U.S. military officials have stated that no rehearsals or preparations for invasion are underway, while Cuban officials have engaged in talks amid the fuel crisis. Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to “No” because these developments reflect a strategy of coercion short of direct military intervention, with no confirmed authorization or timetable for invasion before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
8% 概率
$3,250,920 交易量
$3,250,920 交易量
2026-12-31
是
8% 概率
$3,250,920 交易量
$3,250,920 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Despite elevated tensions in 2026, including U.S. executive orders imposing tariffs on Cuba’s oil suppliers, the indictment of Raúl Castro, and naval positioning in the Caribbean following the Venezuela operation, the administration has prioritized maximum economic pressure, sanctions, and conditional humanitarian aid offers alongside backchannel negotiations. Senior U.S. military officials have stated that no rehearsals or preparations for invasion are underway, while Cuban officials have engaged in talks amid the fuel crisis. Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to “No” because these developments reflect a strategy of coercion short of direct military intervention, with no confirmed authorization or timetable for invasion before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
市场开放时间： Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
交易量
$3,250,920结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Despite elevated tensions in 2026, including U.S. executive orders imposing tariffs on Cuba’s oil suppliers, the indictment of Raúl Castro, and naval positioning in the Caribbean following the Venezuela operation, the administration has prioritized maximum economic pressure, sanctions, and conditional humanitarian aid offers alongside backchannel negotiations. Senior U.S. military officials have stated that no rehearsals or preparations for invasion are underway, while Cuban officials have engaged in talks amid the fuel crisis. Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to “No” because these developments reflect a strategy of coercion short of direct military intervention, with no confirmed authorization or timetable for invasion before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$3,250,920结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite elevated tensions in 2026, including U.S. executive orders imposing tariffs on Cuba’s oil suppliers, the indictment of Raúl Castro, and naval positioning in the Caribbean following the Venezuela operation, the administration has prioritized maximum economic pressure, sanctions, and conditional humanitarian aid offers alongside backchannel negotiations. Senior U.S. military officials have stated that no rehearsals or preparations for invasion are underway, while Cuban officials have engaged in talks amid the fuel crisis. Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to “No” because these developments reflect a strategy of coercion short of direct military intervention, with no confirmed authorization or timetable for invasion before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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