The Trump administration’s maximum-pressure campaign—anchored in the January 2026 national emergency declaration, oil-supply tariffs, and the May indictment of Raúl Castro—has intensified economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation without triggering military action. Cuba’s resulting fuel shortages, blackouts, and prisoner releases reflect concessions under duress rather than battlefield developments. U.S. officials have repeatedly framed regime change as achievable through a “deal” or “friendly takeover,” while military assets positioned in the Caribbean remain tied to sanctions enforcement and surveillance. With no major escalation or authorization for invasion by mid-2026, and analysts citing substantial operational costs absent a triggering incident, trader consensus assigns the “No” outcome a 77.5% implied probability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$2,955,798 交易量
$2,955,798 交易量
2026-12-31
$2,955,798 交易量
$2,955,798 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The Trump administration’s maximum-pressure campaign—anchored in the January 2026 national emergency declaration, oil-supply tariffs, and the May indictment of Raúl Castro—has intensified economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation without triggering military action. Cuba’s resulting fuel shortages, blackouts, and prisoner releases reflect concessions under duress rather than battlefield developments. U.S. officials have repeatedly framed regime change as achievable through a “deal” or “friendly takeover,” while military assets positioned in the Caribbean remain tied to sanctions enforcement and surveillance. With no major escalation or authorization for invasion by mid-2026, and analysts citing substantial operational costs absent a triggering incident, trader consensus assigns the “No” outcome a 77.5% implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
市场开放时间： Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
交易量
$2,955,798结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The Trump administration’s maximum-pressure campaign—anchored in the January 2026 national emergency declaration, oil-supply tariffs, and the May indictment of Raúl Castro—has intensified economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation without triggering military action. Cuba’s resulting fuel shortages, blackouts, and prisoner releases reflect concessions under duress rather than battlefield developments. U.S. officials have repeatedly framed regime change as achievable through a “deal” or “friendly takeover,” while military assets positioned in the Caribbean remain tied to sanctions enforcement and surveillance. With no major escalation or authorization for invasion by mid-2026, and analysts citing substantial operational costs absent a triggering incident, trader consensus assigns the “No” outcome a 77.5% implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$2,955,798结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration’s maximum-pressure campaign—anchored in the January 2026 national emergency declaration, oil-supply tariffs, and the May indictment of Raúl Castro—has intensified economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation without triggering military action. Cuba’s resulting fuel shortages, blackouts, and prisoner releases reflect concessions under duress rather than battlefield developments. U.S. officials have repeatedly framed regime change as achievable through a “deal” or “friendly takeover,” while military assets positioned in the Caribbean remain tied to sanctions enforcement and surveillance. With no major escalation or authorization for invasion by mid-2026, and analysts citing substantial operational costs absent a triggering incident, trader consensus assigns the “No” outcome a 77.5% implied probability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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