US-Iran diplomatic relations remain severed since 1979, with Washington maintaining no embassy or direct consular presence in Tehran and relying on Switzerland as protecting power for limited interests. Heightened regional conflict in 2026, including military operations and airspace disruptions, has prompted US diplomatic posts across the Middle East to reduce staffing and issue repeated security alerts, reinforcing barriers to normalization. No bilateral agreements, high-level summits, or verified steps toward embassy restoration have emerged by mid-August. Traders assign 95.5% probability to no reopening this year due to these entrenched structural and security obstacles. Even modest shifts would require verifiable de-escalation and formal negotiations before year-end, outcomes that remain distant given current postures.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
5% 概率
$158,284 交易量
$158,284 交易量
2026-12-31
是
5% 概率
$158,284 交易量
$158,284 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran diplomatic relations remain severed since 1979, with Washington maintaining no embassy or direct consular presence in Tehran and relying on Switzerland as protecting power for limited interests. Heightened regional conflict in 2026, including military operations and airspace disruptions, has prompted US diplomatic posts across the Middle East to reduce staffing and issue repeated security alerts, reinforcing barriers to normalization. No bilateral agreements, high-level summits, or verified steps toward embassy restoration have emerged by mid-August. Traders assign 95.5% probability to no reopening this year due to these entrenched structural and security obstacles. Even modest shifts would require verifiable de-escalation and formal negotiations before year-end, outcomes that remain distant given current postures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
交易量
$158,284结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran diplomatic relations remain severed since 1979, with Washington maintaining no embassy or direct consular presence in Tehran and relying on Switzerland as protecting power for limited interests. Heightened regional conflict in 2026, including military operations and airspace disruptions, has prompted US diplomatic posts across the Middle East to reduce staffing and issue repeated security alerts, reinforcing barriers to normalization. No bilateral agreements, high-level summits, or verified steps toward embassy restoration have emerged by mid-August. Traders assign 95.5% probability to no reopening this year due to these entrenched structural and security obstacles. Even modest shifts would require verifiable de-escalation and formal negotiations before year-end, outcomes that remain distant given current postures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$158,284结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran diplomatic relations remain severed since 1979, with Washington maintaining no embassy or direct consular presence in Tehran and relying on Switzerland as protecting power for limited interests. Heightened regional conflict in 2026, including military operations and airspace disruptions, has prompted US diplomatic posts across the Middle East to reduce staffing and issue repeated security alerts, reinforcing barriers to normalization. No bilateral agreements, high-level summits, or verified steps toward embassy restoration have emerged by mid-August. Traders assign 95.5% probability to no reopening this year due to these entrenched structural and security obstacles. Even modest shifts would require verifiable de-escalation and formal negotiations before year-end, outcomes that remain distant given current postures.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题