NOAA’s September 10, 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion drives the 94.2% market-implied odds for a Super El Niño (very strong event with peak Niño 3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) this winter, citing rapid strengthening with current weekly anomalies near +2.9°C in the Niño 3.4 region and a greater than 90% chance of very strong conditions persisting through fall and winter 2026-27. Model consensus, including IRI and GFDL SPEAR ensembles, centers the peak in October–December 2026, with 75% odds of a historic RONI value exceeding +2.5°C—surpassing prior events since 1950. While the coupled ocean-atmosphere system shows clear El Niño signatures, inherent forecast uncertainty means atmospheric shifts or model revisions could moderate peak intensity before the winter season resolves the market.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于今年冬天（ 2026–27年）会有超级厄尔尼诺现象吗？
今年冬天（ 2026–27年）会有超级厄尔尼诺现象吗？
是
94% 概率
最新
最新
2027-03-31
是
94% 概率
最新
最新
2027-03-31
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.NOAA’s September 10, 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion drives the 94.2% market-implied odds for a Super El Niño (very strong event with peak Niño 3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) this winter, citing rapid strengthening with current weekly anomalies near +2.9°C in the Niño 3.4 region and a greater than 90% chance of very strong conditions persisting through fall and winter 2026-27. Model consensus, including IRI and GFDL SPEAR ensembles, centers the peak in October–December 2026, with 75% odds of a historic RONI value exceeding +2.5°C—surpassing prior events since 1950. While the coupled ocean-atmosphere system shows clear El Niño signatures, inherent forecast uncertainty means atmospheric shifts or model revisions could moderate peak intensity before the winter season resolves the market.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
交易量
$9,248结束日期
2027-04-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETThis market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.NOAA’s September 10, 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion drives the 94.2% market-implied odds for a Super El Niño (very strong event with peak Niño 3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) this winter, citing rapid strengthening with current weekly anomalies near +2.9°C in the Niño 3.4 region and a greater than 90% chance of very strong conditions persisting through fall and winter 2026-27. Model consensus, including IRI and GFDL SPEAR ensembles, centers the peak in October–December 2026, with 75% odds of a historic RONI value exceeding +2.5°C—surpassing prior events since 1950. While the coupled ocean-atmosphere system shows clear El Niño signatures, inherent forecast uncertainty means atmospheric shifts or model revisions could moderate peak intensity before the winter season resolves the market.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
交易量
$9,248结束日期
2027-04-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETNOAA’s September 10, 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion drives the 94.2% market-implied odds for a Super El Niño (very strong event with peak Niño 3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) this winter, citing rapid strengthening with current weekly anomalies near +2.9°C in the Niño 3.4 region and a greater than 90% chance of very strong conditions persisting through fall and winter 2026-27. Model consensus, including IRI and GFDL SPEAR ensembles, centers the peak in October–December 2026, with 75% odds of a historic RONI value exceeding +2.5°C—surpassing prior events since 1950. While the coupled ocean-atmosphere system shows clear El Niño signatures, inherent forecast uncertainty means atmospheric shifts or model revisions could moderate peak intensity before the winter season resolves the market.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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