**Strong bilateral ties and strategic alignment on Indo-Pacific security and trade underpin the 81% implied probability that President Trump will meet President Marcos by December 31, 2026.** The U.S.-Philippines alliance remains central to Manila’s approach amid South China Sea tensions, with both leaders having already held a July 2025 White House meeting that produced a modest tariff adjustment and commitments to expand defense and economic cooperation. Recent U.S.-Philippines ministerial dialogues have reaffirmed joint priorities on maritime security, infrastructure, and regional stability, while Marcos continues active diplomacy with other partners. Traders appear to view routine high-level engagement between treaty allies as the base-rate expectation, with no evident barriers to another bilateral summit before year-end.