Strong bipartisan opposition in Congress, including a unanimous Senate resolution in late July 2026 opposing any pardon or clemency for Ghislaine Maxwell, has reinforced trader expectations against executive action before the end of 2026. Maxwell’s offers to provide testimony clearing President Trump and others in exchange for relief, combined with her attorney’s public comments suggesting a viable path, have not shifted momentum amid widespread concerns over her 20-year sentence for sex-trafficking crimes tied to Jeffrey Epstein. Trump has repeatedly stated he has not seriously considered or been approached about a pardon, while lawmakers from both parties have pressed the Justice Department to close the door. These dynamics, alongside the political risks of appearing to extend leniency in a high-profile case, underpin the 94.5% implied probability traders assign to “No.”