The constitutional requirement for repealing the 22nd Amendment—two-thirds approval in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification by three-fourths of state legislatures—remains the dominant barrier cited by traders. With Republicans holding narrow majorities in the 119th Congress and no bipartisan coalition forming around term-limit changes, no repeal legislation has advanced in 2025 or 2026. Recent statements from President Trump acknowledging that “the law is very strong” on the two-term limit, alongside Democratic resolutions reaffirming the amendment, have reinforced the market’s assessment. While midterms, court challenges, or unforeseen political shifts could theoretically alter the landscape, the structural and partisan hurdles continue to underpin the 96.9% implied probability that repeal will not occur this year.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
3% 概率
$13,082 交易量
$13,082 交易量
2026-12-30
是
3% 概率
$13,082 交易量
$13,082 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.The constitutional requirement for repealing the 22nd Amendment—two-thirds approval in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification by three-fourths of state legislatures—remains the dominant barrier cited by traders. With Republicans holding narrow majorities in the 119th Congress and no bipartisan coalition forming around term-limit changes, no repeal legislation has advanced in 2025 or 2026. Recent statements from President Trump acknowledging that “the law is very strong” on the two-term limit, alongside Democratic resolutions reaffirming the amendment, have reinforced the market’s assessment. While midterms, court challenges, or unforeseen political shifts could theoretically alter the landscape, the structural and partisan hurdles continue to underpin the 96.9% implied probability that repeal will not occur this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
市场开放时间： Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
交易量
$13,082结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.The constitutional requirement for repealing the 22nd Amendment—two-thirds approval in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification by three-fourths of state legislatures—remains the dominant barrier cited by traders. With Republicans holding narrow majorities in the 119th Congress and no bipartisan coalition forming around term-limit changes, no repeal legislation has advanced in 2025 or 2026. Recent statements from President Trump acknowledging that “the law is very strong” on the two-term limit, alongside Democratic resolutions reaffirming the amendment, have reinforced the market’s assessment. While midterms, court challenges, or unforeseen political shifts could theoretically alter the landscape, the structural and partisan hurdles continue to underpin the 96.9% implied probability that repeal will not occur this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
交易量
$13,082结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The constitutional requirement for repealing the 22nd Amendment—two-thirds approval in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification by three-fourths of state legislatures—remains the dominant barrier cited by traders. With Republicans holding narrow majorities in the 119th Congress and no bipartisan coalition forming around term-limit changes, no repeal legislation has advanced in 2025 or 2026. Recent statements from President Trump acknowledging that “the law is very strong” on the two-term limit, alongside Democratic resolutions reaffirming the amendment, have reinforced the market’s assessment. While midterms, court challenges, or unforeseen political shifts could theoretically alter the landscape, the structural and partisan hurdles continue to underpin the 96.9% implied probability that repeal will not occur this year.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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