Tensions between the United States and Iran have shaped trader expectations for any direct contact between President Trump and Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Mojtaba assumed the role after his father’s death in a February 2026 strike and has since elevated hardline security officials while issuing statements criticizing U.S. policy and questioning the value of prior agreements. Trump expressed openness to a meeting in June if a deal emerged, yet public exchanges have remained hostile amid ongoing disputes over a memorandum of understanding and regional confrontations. With roughly four months remaining before the December 31, 2026 resolution date and no scheduled diplomatic channels or breakthrough announcements, the market’s low implied probability reflects the absence of verifiable progress toward direct talks.