Ukraine maintains an ongoing campaign of long-range strikes against Russian military and energy infrastructure in occupied Crimea, including power substations, air-defense systems such as S-400 launchers, and drone facilities, as part of operations like “Crimean Switch Off.” Russian forces have responded with intensified missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian energy and civilian sites. On the ground, Ukrainian units conducted a localized counteroffensive in northern Donetsk in September and early October, reclaiming territory and disrupting Russian logistics, though fighting remains concentrated far from Crimea’s approaches. No verified large-scale Ukrainian ground offensive or amphibious preparations targeting the peninsula have been reported in recent weeks. Traders assess the probability of territorial recapture by late 2026 as low, reflecting Crimea’s fortified defenses, logistical barriers, and the current focus of operations on attrition and deep strikes rather than southern advances.