Spain edges France as the narrowest favorite in the 2026 World Cup market thanks to Euro 2024 success, a balanced squad blending experience with emerging talents like Lamine Yamal and Pedri, and consistent results in recent internationals. France sits close behind with unmatched attacking depth around Kylian Mbappé and strong tournament pedigree in multiple recent finals. England follows as a competitive third option under Thomas Tuchel, backed by squad quality and recent European Championship runs. Argentina, Portugal, and Brazil remain tightly grouped on the strength of defending-champion pedigree, star power, and South American qualifying form, while Germany and the Netherlands add further depth to a crowded European contingent. The bunched probabilities reflect how similar squad strengths, recent major-tournament experience, and the expanded 48-team format keep outcomes highly contested heading into group stage openers.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于西班牙 17.0%
法国 16.1%
英格兰 10.8%
葡萄牙 10.8%
$1,948,654,685 交易量
$1,948,654,685 交易量
西班牙
17%
法国
16%
英格兰
11%
葡萄牙
11%
阿根廷
9%
巴西
8%
德国
5%
荷兰
4%
挪威
2%
比利时
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
日本
2%
摩洛哥
2%
墨西哥
1%
瑞士
1%
土耳其
1%
美国
1%
乌拉圭
1%
克罗地亚
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
塞内加尔
1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
Austria
<1%
分组项标题：加拿大
<1%
瑞典
<1%
South Korea
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
埃及
<1%
伊朗
<1%
加纳
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
波黑
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
刚果（金）
<1%
捷克
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
新西兰
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
库拉索
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
巴拿马
<1%
伊拉克
<1%
南非
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
西班牙 17.0%
法国 16.1%
英格兰 10.8%
葡萄牙 10.8%
$1,948,654,685 交易量
$1,948,654,685 交易量
西班牙
17%
法国
16%
英格兰
11%
葡萄牙
11%
阿根廷
9%
巴西
8%
德国
5%
荷兰
4%
挪威
2%
比利时
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
日本
2%
摩洛哥
2%
墨西哥
1%
瑞士
1%
土耳其
1%
美国
1%
乌拉圭
1%
克罗地亚
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
塞内加尔
1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
Austria
<1%
分组项标题：加拿大
<1%
瑞典
<1%
South Korea
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
埃及
<1%
伊朗
<1%
加纳
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
波黑
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
刚果（金）
<1%
捷克
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
新西兰
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
库拉索
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
巴拿马
<1%
伊拉克
<1%
南非
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain edges France as the narrowest favorite in the 2026 World Cup market thanks to Euro 2024 success, a balanced squad blending experience with emerging talents like Lamine Yamal and Pedri, and consistent results in recent internationals. France sits close behind with unmatched attacking depth around Kylian Mbappé and strong tournament pedigree in multiple recent finals. England follows as a competitive third option under Thomas Tuchel, backed by squad quality and recent European Championship runs. Argentina, Portugal, and Brazil remain tightly grouped on the strength of defending-champion pedigree, star power, and South American qualifying form, while Germany and the Netherlands add further depth to a crowded European contingent. The bunched probabilities reflect how similar squad strengths, recent major-tournament experience, and the expanded 48-team format keep outcomes highly contested heading into group stage openers.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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