Recent generic ballot polling averages show Democrats leading by roughly 4–7 points nationally, a swing of about 6 points from the 2024 House results and consistent with the opposition-party advantage typical in midterm cycles. This positioning, alongside Democratic overperformance in 2026 special elections and a narrow Republican House majority of just a handful of seats, has concentrated trader consensus on Democratic popular-vote margins in the 6–12 percent range. Mid-decade redistricting clashes have introduced some uncertainty about seat translation but have not altered the underlying national environment. With Election Day still months away, late shifts in economic conditions, presidential approval, or turnout patterns among key voting blocs could still move the final margin within or outside the listed buckets.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Democrats 8-10% 27%
Democrats 10-12% 22%
Democrats 6-8% 18%
Democrats 4-6% 12%
$119,661 Vol.
$119,661 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
1%
Democrats 14-16%
2%
Democrats 12-14%
7%
Democrats 10-12%
22%
Democrats 8-10%
27%
Democrats 6-8%
18%
Democrats 4-6%
12%
Democrats 2-4%
7%
Democrats 0-2%
2%
Republicans 0-2%
5%
Republicans 2-4%
3%
Republicans 4-6%
1%
Republicans 6%+
2%
Democrats 8-10% 27%
Democrats 10-12% 22%
Democrats 6-8% 18%
Democrats 4-6% 12%
$119,661 Vol.
$119,661 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
$3,158 Vol.
1%
Democrats 14-16%
$2,466 Vol.
2%
Democrats 12-14%
$4,106 Vol.
7%
Democrats 10-12%
$7,995 Vol.
22%
Democrats 8-10%
$13,866 Vol.
27%
Democrats 6-8%
$13,877 Vol.
18%
Democrats 4-6%
$5,245 Vol.
12%
Democrats 2-4%
$14,161 Vol.
7%
Democrats 0-2%
$13,479 Vol.
2%
Republicans 0-2%
$5,143 Vol.
5%
Republicans 2-4%
$29,530 Vol.
3%
Republicans 4-6%
$2,878 Vol.
1%
Republicans 6%+
$3,756 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot polling averages show Democrats leading by roughly 4–7 points nationally, a swing of about 6 points from the 2024 House results and consistent with the opposition-party advantage typical in midterm cycles. This positioning, alongside Democratic overperformance in 2026 special elections and a narrow Republican House majority of just a handful of seats, has concentrated trader consensus on Democratic popular-vote margins in the 6–12 percent range. Mid-decade redistricting clashes have introduced some uncertainty about seat translation but have not altered the underlying national environment. With Election Day still months away, late shifts in economic conditions, presidential approval, or turnout patterns among key voting blocs could still move the final margin within or outside the listed buckets.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
ভলিউম
$119,661শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot polling averages show Democrats leading by roughly 4–7 points nationally, a swing of about 6 points from the 2024 House results and consistent with the opposition-party advantage typical in midterm cycles. This positioning, alongside Democratic overperformance in 2026 special elections and a narrow Republican House majority of just a handful of seats, has concentrated trader consensus on Democratic popular-vote margins in the 6–12 percent range. Mid-decade redistricting clashes have introduced some uncertainty about seat translation but have not altered the underlying national environment. With Election Day still months away, late shifts in economic conditions, presidential approval, or turnout patterns among key voting blocs could still move the final margin within or outside the listed buckets.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
ভলিউম
$119,661শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent generic ballot polling averages show Democrats leading by roughly 4–7 points nationally, a swing of about 6 points from the 2024 House results and consistent with the opposition-party advantage typical in midterm cycles. This positioning, alongside Democratic overperformance in 2026 special elections and a narrow Republican House majority of just a handful of seats, has concentrated trader consensus on Democratic popular-vote margins in the 6–12 percent range. Mid-decade redistricting clashes have introduced some uncertainty about seat translation but have not altered the underlying national environment. With Election Day still months away, late shifts in economic conditions, presidential approval, or turnout patterns among key voting blocs could still move the final margin within or outside the listed buckets.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
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