Trader consensus positions Texas and Iowa as the leading contenders for the narrowest 2026 Senate margin, reflecting polling averages and candidate matchups in those states that remain within a few points amid shifting national conditions. In Texas, the Republican primary outcome pairing Ken Paxton against Democratic challenger James Talarico has produced forecasts of a tighter contest than typical for the state, while Iowa’s open seat features Republican Ashley Hinson versus Democrat Josh Turek in a race viewed as structurally competitive. Ohio’s special election pitting Sherrod Brown against Jon Husted and Alaska’s matchup of Mary Peltola versus Dan Sullivan follow closely, supported by recent ratings from nonpartisan forecasters that classify multiple Republican-held seats as toss-ups or leans. Maine, Michigan, and Nebraska also register as factors traders monitor for potential late movement. Developments such as updated polling aggregates, primary resolutions, or shifts in the broader midterm environment could widen or narrow perceived gaps before November.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডTexas 25%
Iowa 22.4%
Maine 15%
Ohio (Special) 13.8%
$28,210 Vol.
$28,210 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
25%
Iowa
22%
Maine
15%
Ohio (Special)
14%
Alaska
12%
Michigan
6%
Nebraska
5%
New Mexico
3%
Florida (Special)
3%
Virginia
2%
North Carolina
2%
New Hampshire
2%
Georgia
1%
Colorado
1%
Minnesota
1%
Montana
<1%
Texas 25%
Iowa 22.4%
Maine 15%
Ohio (Special) 13.8%
$28,210 Vol.
$28,210 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
$1,058 Vol.
25%
Iowa
$2,677 Vol.
22%
Maine
$1,285 Vol.
15%
Ohio (Special)
$5,040 Vol.
14%
Alaska
$5,272 Vol.
12%
Michigan
$2,490 Vol.
6%
Nebraska
$275 Vol.
5%
New Mexico
$160 Vol.
3%
Florida (Special)
$253 Vol.
3%
Virginia
$5,073 Vol.
2%
North Carolina
$621 Vol.
2%
New Hampshire
$485 Vol.
2%
Georgia
$752 Vol.
1%
Colorado
$662 Vol.
1%
Minnesota
$1,489 Vol.
1%
Montana
$616 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus positions Texas and Iowa as the leading contenders for the narrowest 2026 Senate margin, reflecting polling averages and candidate matchups in those states that remain within a few points amid shifting national conditions. In Texas, the Republican primary outcome pairing Ken Paxton against Democratic challenger James Talarico has produced forecasts of a tighter contest than typical for the state, while Iowa’s open seat features Republican Ashley Hinson versus Democrat Josh Turek in a race viewed as structurally competitive. Ohio’s special election pitting Sherrod Brown against Jon Husted and Alaska’s matchup of Mary Peltola versus Dan Sullivan follow closely, supported by recent ratings from nonpartisan forecasters that classify multiple Republican-held seats as toss-ups or leans. Maine, Michigan, and Nebraska also register as factors traders monitor for potential late movement. Developments such as updated polling aggregates, primary resolutions, or shifts in the broader midterm environment could widen or narrow perceived gaps before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
ভলিউম
$28,210শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus positions Texas and Iowa as the leading contenders for the narrowest 2026 Senate margin, reflecting polling averages and candidate matchups in those states that remain within a few points amid shifting national conditions. In Texas, the Republican primary outcome pairing Ken Paxton against Democratic challenger James Talarico has produced forecasts of a tighter contest than typical for the state, while Iowa’s open seat features Republican Ashley Hinson versus Democrat Josh Turek in a race viewed as structurally competitive. Ohio’s special election pitting Sherrod Brown against Jon Husted and Alaska’s matchup of Mary Peltola versus Dan Sullivan follow closely, supported by recent ratings from nonpartisan forecasters that classify multiple Republican-held seats as toss-ups or leans. Maine, Michigan, and Nebraska also register as factors traders monitor for potential late movement. Developments such as updated polling aggregates, primary resolutions, or shifts in the broader midterm environment could widen or narrow perceived gaps before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ভলিউম
$28,210শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus positions Texas and Iowa as the leading contenders for the narrowest 2026 Senate margin, reflecting polling averages and candidate matchups in those states that remain within a few points amid shifting national conditions. In Texas, the Republican primary outcome pairing Ken Paxton against Democratic challenger James Talarico has produced forecasts of a tighter contest than typical for the state, while Iowa’s open seat features Republican Ashley Hinson versus Democrat Josh Turek in a race viewed as structurally competitive. Ohio’s special election pitting Sherrod Brown against Jon Husted and Alaska’s matchup of Mary Peltola versus Dan Sullivan follow closely, supported by recent ratings from nonpartisan forecasters that classify multiple Republican-held seats as toss-ups or leans. Maine, Michigan, and Nebraska also register as factors traders monitor for potential late movement. Developments such as updated polling aggregates, primary resolutions, or shifts in the broader midterm environment could widen or narrow perceived gaps before November.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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