Houthi forces’ rapid September 2026 advances along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including capture of Mokha port, Perim Island, and the Hanish islands, have placed both shores and key mid-strait positions under their control, sharply raising risks for commercial traffic. Daily transits have fallen 40-60 percent below pre-crisis norms on many days, with some reports showing only 11-15 commodity vessels, though averages remain above the roughly 10-vessel threshold that would register as effective closure under IMF PortWatch metrics. Houthis have declared a selective maritime embargo on Saudi-linked vessels while issuing assurances that other international shipping remains open and safe. No authority has formally closed the strait, and traffic continues amid elevated insurance costs and rerouting options, leaving trader consensus at modest odds of full effective closure by year-end amid ongoing coastal fighting and naval monitoring.