Recent Houthi threats and attacks on Saudi-linked shipping have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 25–40 vessels daily, with Kpler data showing swings from 29 crossings after the July 27 Aramco strikes to a one-week high of 39 on July 28. Elevated war-risk premiums, rerouting incentives around the Cape, and selective blockades on Saudi port calls continue to weigh on volumes, while any pause in escalation could support modest recovery. The tight spread between the 30–34 (36.5%) and 25–29 (33.5%) bins reflects trader focus on near-term volatility and the balance between persistent geopolitical risk and signs of resilient commercial flows. Upcoming data releases and any further Houthi statements will likely drive repricing ahead of month-end resolution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
30-34 37%
25-29 35%
35-39 14%
<25 9%
নতুন
নতুন
Aug 31, 2026
<25
9%
25-29
35%
30-34
37%
35-39
14%
40+
5%
30-34 37%
25-29 35%
35-39 14%
<25 9%
নতুন
নতুন
Aug 31, 2026
<25
$104 Vol.
9%
25-29
$124 Vol.
35%
30-34
$73 Vol.
37%
35-39
$49 Vol.
14%
40+
$43 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats and attacks on Saudi-linked shipping have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 25–40 vessels daily, with Kpler data showing swings from 29 crossings after the July 27 Aramco strikes to a one-week high of 39 on July 28. Elevated war-risk premiums, rerouting incentives around the Cape, and selective blockades on Saudi port calls continue to weigh on volumes, while any pause in escalation could support modest recovery. The tight spread between the 30–34 (36.5%) and 25–29 (33.5%) bins reflects trader focus on near-term volatility and the balance between persistent geopolitical risk and signs of resilient commercial flows. Upcoming data releases and any further Houthi statements will likely drive repricing ahead of month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
ভলিউম
$392শেষ তারিখ
Aug 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats and attacks on Saudi-linked shipping have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 25–40 vessels daily, with Kpler data showing swings from 29 crossings after the July 27 Aramco strikes to a one-week high of 39 on July 28. Elevated war-risk premiums, rerouting incentives around the Cape, and selective blockades on Saudi port calls continue to weigh on volumes, while any pause in escalation could support modest recovery. The tight spread between the 30–34 (36.5%) and 25–29 (33.5%) bins reflects trader focus on near-term volatility and the balance between persistent geopolitical risk and signs of resilient commercial flows. Upcoming data releases and any further Houthi statements will likely drive repricing ahead of month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ভলিউম
$392শেষ তারিখ
Aug 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi threats and attacks on Saudi-linked shipping have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 25–40 vessels daily, with Kpler data showing swings from 29 crossings after the July 27 Aramco strikes to a one-week high of 39 on July 28. Elevated war-risk premiums, rerouting incentives around the Cape, and selective blockades on Saudi port calls continue to weigh on volumes, while any pause in escalation could support modest recovery. The tight spread between the 30–34 (36.5%) and 25–29 (33.5%) bins reflects trader focus on near-term volatility and the balance between persistent geopolitical risk and signs of resilient commercial flows. Upcoming data releases and any further Houthi statements will likely drive repricing ahead of month-end resolution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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