Mojtaba Khamenei’s March 2026 election by the Assembly of Experts as supreme leader following his father Ali Khamenei’s February assassination during the US-Israel conflict has established continuity in Iran’s theocratic structure. Recent October and November developments show him exercising authority through secret consultations with military commanders, parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and President Masoud Pezeshkian, while granting the government expanded powers for potential peace talks on war termination and Strait of Hormuz access. These steps, alongside reports of improving health and directives on sanctions relief and nuclear matters, reinforce trader consensus that near-term removal or resignation remains unlikely through mid-2027. Ongoing regional hostilities and elite cohesion around security institutions continue to anchor low implied probabilities of leadership transition.